AI News by Smol AI vs Kalshi in 2026

AI News by Smol AI, Kalshi and Model Odds compared on what each does, what each costs and what to check before you choose.

By SupaKeeper · 2026-10-22

SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.

People open this page to see how a daily AI news digest and a market where the future is traded line up, and where each one's own sources put its limits. AI News by Smol AI is made by @swyx and other Smol AI friends ^[1], and its page describes a search you open with Cmd+K ^[1]. Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future ^[2], it offers perpetual futures products ^[2], and it offers perpetual futures markets through Kalshi Pro ^[2]. The table lists what each one's sources say it does in full. Pick by the question you have: following AI discussion points to the digest, and taking a position on an event points to the market.

Option	What its sources say it does	Cost	Account or install
AI News by Smol AI	Summarizes top AI Discords, AI Reddits and AI X/Twitters and sends a roundup each day ^[1]; offers an RSS subscription ^[1]; a customizable version is available ^[1]; page says it respects user privacy ^[1]; search opens with Cmd+K ^[1]	not published	not published in the facts
Kalshi	A prediction market for trading the future ^[2]; offers perpetual futures products through Kalshi Pro ^[2] ^[2]; subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC ^[2]; runs an incentive program ^[2]	not published; members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees ^[2]	not published in the facts
Model Odds	Ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]; each company gets a page listing every past release ^[3]; runs three estimators and publishes the spread between them as the error bar ^[3]; offers email alerts ^[3]	free, for the product and its API ^[3]	no account ^[3]; a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[3]

What AI News by Smol AI, Kalshi is built for

AI News by Smol AI is created by @swyx and other Smol AI friends ^[1]. Its page describes a search feature that opens with the Cmd+K shortcut ^[1]. Users can get in touch on social media or by sending an email ^[1]. What the digest summarizes and how it is delivered are set out in its row of the table below, because the facts given here state those parts through its own page. Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future ^[2]. It offers perpetual futures products ^[2], and it offers perpetual futures markets through Kalshi Pro ^[2]. Trading on the market involves risk and may not be appropriate for all people, and members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees, parts its page states and the table repeats ^[2] ^[2]. Its page says Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC ^[2], and that trading decisions are solely the user's responsibility and at their own risk ^[2]. Its page also lists an incentive program ^[2]. The page's own description is the only basis for these rows.

What Model Odds is built for

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. The product ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. It gives each company its own page that lists every past release ^[3]. Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and is listed with its date ^[3]. The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted ^[3]. It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar ^[3]. Signals read automatically from company SDKs and docs, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds ^[3]. The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date ^[3]. A public API serves per-line odds, the launch record and service health ^[3]. The website and the API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes ^[3].

Pricing and fees

The facts given here do not state a dollar price for AI News by Smol AI, so none is published here ^[1]. The facts given here do not state a dollar price for Kalshi either, so none is published here, though its page does state that members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees ^[2]. Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[3]. The only price given in the facts for any of the three is free for Model Odds ^[3]. If you need the cost of the digest or of the market for your own use, check each one's own pages, since the facts here do not state one.

Setting it up and daily use

Model Odds is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[3]. It is a website with a public API ^[3]. There is no account to set up ^[3]. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[3]. The website and the API share one snapshot cached for up to five minutes ^[3]. For AI News by Smol AI, users can get in touch on social media or by sending an email ^[1], and its search opens with Cmd+K ^[1]; the facts given here say nothing further about installation or daily setup for it. For Kalshi, the facts state that trading involves risk, that members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction including fees, and that trading decisions are solely the user's responsibility ^[2] ^[2] ^[2], but say nothing about installing or setting anything up. Check each tool's own pages for anything further.

Things to check before you choose

Ask what you need the tool to tell you. Ask how you want the digest delivered; its page states an RSS option and a daily roundup, and the table lists them ^[1] ^[1]. Ask how you expect a market to behave, since its page warns trading involves risk and is not appropriate for all ^[2]. Check whether you are comfortable with the market's regulatory and risk notices, which the facts here repeat from its own page ^[2] ^[2]. Ask how current you need the figures to be; a snapshot cached for up to five minutes means the figures can be up to five minutes old ^[3]. Ask whether you must confirm an email before alerts arrive ^[3]. Check the scope of the odds, which cover Anthropic and OpenAI families only ^[3].

How to choose

A developer's needs line up with the sources that state them. If you want a daily summary of AI discussion and the ability to reach its makers, AI News by Smol AI states the makers you can contact and how ^[1] ^[1]. If you want a place where the future is traded and you accept the risk its own page states, Kalshi describes itself as a prediction market and lists its futures products ^[2] ^[2]. If you want an estimated chance of an Anthropic or OpenAI model release within 30 days, Model Odds ranks every such family ^[3] and serves its data through a free public API ^[3] ^[3]. Match the tool to the question the sources say it answers, and read each tool's own pages for what the facts here do not state.

Frequently asked questions

Is AI News by Smol AI free to use?

The facts given here do not state a dollar price for AI News by Smol AI, so none is published here ^[1]. The page describes a search with Cmd+K ^[1] and a way to reach its makers ^[1], but says nothing about a fee. Check its own pages if you need the cost.

Does Kalshi cost anything to use?

The facts given here do not state a dollar price for Kalshi ^[2]. Its page states that members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees ^[2], and that trading involves risk and is not appropriate for all ^[2]. Check its own pages if you need a price.

Can Model Odds send alerts when a model release drops?

Yes. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[3]. Model Odds is free and needs no account ^[3]. A confirmed email is part of signing up for the alerts ^[3].

What does AI News by Smol AI summarize?

Its own page says it summarizes top AI Discords, AI Reddits and AI X/Twitters and sends a roundup each day ^[1]. It also offers an RSS subscription option ^[1] and a customizable version ^[1]. Its page states that it respects user privacy ^[1]. The digest draws its items from the top AI Discords, AI Reddits and AI X/Twitters that the page names, and the roundup arrives once a day ^[1].

Does Kalshi offer futures markets?

Yes. Kalshi describes itself as a prediction market for trading the future ^[2], and it offers perpetual futures products through Kalshi Pro ^[2] ^[2]. Its page warns that trading involves risk and may not be appropriate for all ^[2], and that members may risk losing their cost to enter transactions, including fees ^[2].

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[3]

Try Model Odds