Best AI model release trackers for AI product designers in 2026

Compare Model Odds, Polymarket, Manifold, Artificial Analysis and LLM Stats for tracking AI model releases, with questions to ask before you choose.

By SupaKeeper · 2026-11-03

SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.

AI product designers usually track releases to plan timing, read market opinion, or compare models once they ship. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[1] The other options below answer different questions.

Option	What it does	Price as stated
Model Odds	Ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[1]	Free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[1]
Polymarket	Describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. ^[2]	not published
Manifold	Lets users browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun. ^[3]	New users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading. ^[3]
Artificial Analysis	Lets users compare models on intelligence, pricing, speed, latency, benchmarks and more. ^[4]	not published
LLM Stats	Ranks GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek, Qwen, Mistral, GLM and more by intelligence, speed and price. ^[5]	not published

What AI product designers need from AI model release trackers

AI product designers usually want to know when a new model may arrive, so an interface and its copy can be ready in time. Others want to see how models compare on benchmarks or price once they exist, or how a market reads the chance of a launch. Those are separate questions, and each needs a different source.

The main limit is that a launch date is never certain. Any tool that estimates timing gives a judgment, not a notice from the company, so plan around a window rather than a single day. Check whether a tool states its method, shows the record of past launches it relies on, and says how often its numbers update.

Sources also differ in what they cover. A tool may follow only some companies, and a benchmark site may say nothing about timing. Read each option's own page before you rely on it. The sections below say what each source states and nothing more.

Model Odds for AI product designers

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[1] Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release. ^[1] Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date. ^[1]

The estimate runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar. ^[1] It is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted. ^[1] Signals read automatically from company developer kits (SDKs) and docs, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds. ^[1] The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date. ^[1]

You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's releases at the same time. ^[1] Model Odds is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. ^[1] It is a website with a public API that serves odds, the launch record and service health. ^[1] ^[1] The website and the API share one snapshot cached for up to five minutes. ^[1] It is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[1]

Polymarket for AI product designers

Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. ^[2] Trading is blocked in the United States on the main site, which directs US users to a separate US site. ^[2] The platform operates globally through separate legal entities. ^[2] Check which site applies to you before you rely on any market on it.

Manifold for AI product designers

New users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading. ^[3] Markets can be browsed in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun. ^[3] Manifold also offers a new market format called Mana Perps. ^[3] Check whether a market on the release you track exists before you use it.

Artificial Analysis for AI product designers

Artificial Analysis lets users compare models on intelligence, pricing, speed, latency, benchmarks and more. ^[4] It also offers Optima, a product for building your own custom benchmark. ^[4] Check its pages to confirm which models and dates each comparison covers.

LLM Stats for AI product designers

LLM Stats offers a weekly curated digest of models, benchmarks, and analysis. ^[5] Its LLM Stats Score aggregates GPQA, SWE-Bench Verified, coding-arena performance and pricing into one comparable ranking. ^[5] Check whether a digest or a single score fits the way you review new models.

Matching the tool to the job

To plan around a possible launch, Model Odds ranks each Anthropic and OpenAI family by its chance of release within 30 days. ^[1] To judge how firm that estimate is, its three estimators publish the spread between them as the error bar. ^[1]

To see the market view on a release, Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. ^[2] Manifold lets users browse markets in categories including technology. ^[3]

To compare models once they exist, Artificial Analysis lets users compare models on intelligence, pricing, speed, latency, benchmarks and more. ^[4] LLM Stats offers a weekly digest of models, benchmarks, and analysis. ^[5]

To get notified when a release happens, Model Odds sends alerts after a confirmed email signup, and every subscriber gets every company's releases at the same time. ^[1]

Questions to ask before you choose

Which kind of signal do you need: an estimated launch window, a market view, or a comparison of models that already exist?

Does the estimate show its record of past launches, and can you check that record yourself?

Would a public API help your team, or do you only need a page you open in the browser?

How often do you need the numbers refreshed, and how does each source say it updates?

Is cost a factor, and does each option state its price on the page?

Which companies do you design for, and does each tool cover them?

Frequently asked questions

Which tool estimates when a new AI model might be released?

Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[1] It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar. ^[1] Each past launch used is confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline. ^[1] The result is an estimate, so check the launch record before you plan around a window.

Is Model Odds free to use?

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[1] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. ^[1] You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's releases at the same time. ^[1] Check the site for any terms that change over time.

Can Polymarket be used from the United States?

Trading is blocked in the United States on the main site, which directs US users to a separate US site. ^[2] The platform operates globally through separate legal entities. ^[2] Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. ^[2] Read the terms on the site you are directed to before you decide how to use it.