--- {"title": "Compare AI model release trackers for prediction market traders", "description": "Start with the question you need answered, then compare Model Odds with prediction markets and AI benchmark sites before you trade.", "url": "https://supakeeper.com/best-ai-model-release-trackers-for-prediction-market-traders/", "date": "2026-10-24"} --- Start with the question you need answered, then compare Model Odds with prediction markets and AI benchmark sites before you trade. For an estimated chance of a release within 30 days, Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by that chance. [^1] It is free to use. [^1] The other options here answer different questions, so pick by the question you need answered. | Option | What it does | Price as stated | |---|---|---| | Model Odds | Ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [^1] | Free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [^1] | | LLM Stats | Tracks 408 canonical models across every major lab and inference provider. [^2] | Not published. | | Artificial Analysis | It provides independent analysis of AI and lets users compare models side by side on intelligence, pricing, speed, latency, benchmarks and more. [^3] [^3] | Not published. | | Kalshi | Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future. [^4] | Amounts not published. Members risk losing the cost of entering any transaction, including fees. [^4] | | Polymarket | Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. [^5] | Not published. | ## What prediction market traders need from AI model release trackers Traders who follow model launches usually need three things: an estimate of how likely a launch is within the window their market covers, confirmation that a launch has already happened, and a clear reading of what counts as a launch under their market's rules. No single tool gives all three, so match the tool to the question before you rely on it. An estimate is a guess, not a promise, and it can be wrong. A number on a screen still leaves the judgment to you, so check how the number is built before you size a position. Read each market's rules too, because a tracker's idea of a release may not match the one your market uses. The sections below say what each option's own sources state and nothing more. Where a source is silent, the section names what to check. ## Model Odds for prediction market traders Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site, and it ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [^1] It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar. [^1] The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted. [^1] Signals read from company software kits and documentation, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds. [^1] You can replay any past date, and the replay uses no data from after that date. [^1] Each past launch in its record has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and each is listed with its date. [^1] Anthropic and OpenAI each have their own page that lists every past release. [^1] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. [^1] ## Kalshi for prediction market traders Kalshi is subject to United States regulatory oversight by the CFTC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. [^4] Members risk losing the cost of entering any transaction, including fees. [^4] Kalshi also runs an incentive program. [^4] Before you trade, read the rules of the specific market, since the market's wording decides what counts as a launch. ## Polymarket for prediction market traders Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. [^5] Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC, doing business as Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. [^5] Trading is blocked in the United States on the main Polymarket site, which directs US users to a separate US site. [^5] Check which site applies to your location before you plan a trade, and read the rules of the market itself for what counts as a release. ## LLM Stats for prediction market traders LLM Stats publishes independent rankings of GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek and 300+ AI models. [^2] It tracks 408 canonical models across every major lab and inference provider. [^2] Its LLM Stats Score combines several categories of model evidence into one comparable number using an uncertainty-aware approach. [^2] Use the rankings to compare models. For timing questions, check whether its pages report release dates. ## Artificial Analysis for prediction market traders Its Intelligence Index v4.3.2 incorporates 10 evaluations. [^3] It also offers Optima, a product for building your own custom benchmark. [^3] Use these for comparing models. For timing questions, check whether its pages report release dates. ## Matching the tool to the job Pick by the question you need answered. To estimate how likely a model family is to launch within a set window, Model Odds gives each Anthropic and OpenAI family an estimated chance. [^1] To confirm that a past launch happened and when, check the Model Odds launch record, where each launch is listed with its date. [^1] To compare models on performance before you form a view, LLM Stats publishes independent rankings of GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek and 300+ AI models. [^2] To see what oversight applies to a platform, Kalshi is subject to United States regulatory oversight by the CFTC. [^4] To check where you can trade, read the Polymarket notice on US access. [^5] To keep up with news in writing, AI News by Smol AI sends a daily roundup that summarizes top AI Discords, AI Reddits and AI X/Twitters. [^6] It can also be followed by RSS, a feed format that news readers use. [^6] ## Questions to ask before you choose Which model families do your questions cover? Model Odds ranks Anthropic and OpenAI model families, so check that list against your market. [^1] Does the window in your market match the window the estimate uses? Check this before you read the number as an answer. Do you need to see how a past launch was confirmed? Model Odds lists each launch with its date after an official post and an independent timeline confirm it. [^1] Where can you trade from? Check each platform's notice on US access before you plan a position. [^5] Do you want alerts for model launches? Model Odds sends alerts to a confirmed email address. [^1] Do you need benchmark comparisons as well as release timing? Check whether a comparison site reports the timing you need. ## Frequently asked questions ### Does Model Odds estimate release odds for every AI lab? Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [^1] Anthropic and OpenAI each have their own page that lists every past release. [^1] The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted. [^1] Check the site for which labs it covers before you rely on it for a question about another lab. ### Is Model Odds free to use? Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [^1] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. [^1] Its API serves odds for each model line, the launch record and service health. [^1] You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time. [^1] ### Is Kalshi regulated in the United States? Kalshi is subject to United States regulatory oversight by the CFTC. [^4] Members risk losing the cost of entering any transaction, including fees. [^4] Kalshi also runs an incentive program. [^4] Read the terms that apply to your account before you place a trade, and read the rules of each market for what counts as a result. ### Can Polymarket be used to trade from the United States? Trading is blocked in the United States on the main Polymarket site, which directs US users to a separate US site. [^5] Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC, doing business as Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. [^5] Check which site applies to you and read the market rules before you place a trade. ### Does LLM Stats rank Claude and GPT models? LLM Stats publishes independent rankings of GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek and 300+ AI models. [^2] It tracks 408 canonical models across every major lab and inference provider. [^2] Its LLM Stats Score combines several categories of model evidence into one comparable number using an uncertainty-aware approach. [^2] Check its pages for how a score is set, and check whether they report release dates if timing matters to you. Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [^1] - [Visit Model Odds](/go/start-modelodds) ## Sources [^1]: Model Odds' own description of itself (the product of this site's publisher) (/go/start-modelodds) [^2]: LLM Stats, llm-stats.com, read 2026-10-18 (https://llm-stats.com) [^3]: Artificial Analysis, artificialanalysis.ai, read 2026-10-08 (https://artificialanalysis.ai) [^4]: Kalshi, kalshi.com, read 2026-10-08 (https://kalshi.com) [^5]: Polymarket, polymarket.com, read 2026-10-08 (https://polymarket.com) [^6]: AI News by Smol AI, news.smol.ai, read 2026-10-18 (https://news.smol.ai)