Kalshi alternatives in 2026
Compare Kalshi alternatives for AI model release tracking, prediction markets, and tools that help developers follow future events.
SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.
Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future. [1] Developers looking for alternatives can compare prediction markets that price events with AI tools that track model information. Model Odds ranks Anthropic and OpenAI model families by their estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2]
| Option | Fee | Card fee |
|---|---|---|
| Model Odds | Free, no account needed [2] | not published |
| Kalshi | not published | not published |
| Polymarket | not published | not published |
| Manifold | not published | not published |
| Artificial Analysis | not published | not published |
Why developers look past Kalshi
A developer searching for Kalshi alternatives may be comparing ways to follow future events. Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future. [1] Kalshi is subject to regulatory oversight by the CFTC in the United States. [1] Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. [1] Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. [1] Trading decisions are solely the user's responsibility and at their own risk. [1] Some developers may want a market that prices an event, while others may want a tracker that estimates AI release timing. The options below cover both types of tools.
Polymarket: a prediction market that prices events
Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. [3] It operates globally through separate legal entities. [3] Trading is blocked in the United States on Polymarket's main platform. [3] Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. [3] Its international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently. [3]
Manifold: browse markets in many categories
Manifold lets users browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun. [4] New users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading. [4] Manifold offers a market primitive called Mana Perps. [4]
Artificial Analysis: a tool for comparing AI models
Artificial Analysis lets users compare models side by side on intelligence, pricing, speed, latency, benchmarks and more. [5] It offers a product called Optima. [5] Its Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index v1.5 incorporates 3 benchmarks. [5] It announced its Artificial Analysis Cyber Index. [5]
Model Odds: a tracker for AI model release chances
Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2] Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release. [2] Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date. [2] It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar. [2] The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted. [2] Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [2] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. [2]
How to pick the right Kalshi alternative
The right choice depends on whether the goal is trading an event or tracking information about AI models. A developer looking for event markets can compare options such as Polymarket and Manifold. Polymarket describes itself as a prediction market. [3] A developer looking for AI model comparisons can use Artificial Analysis, which lets users compare models side by side on intelligence, pricing, speed, latency, benchmarks and more. [5] A developer looking for AI release estimates can use Model Odds, which ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2] Before choosing a prediction market, check the trading rules and risk details. Kalshi states that trading involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. [1]
Things to check before you choose
Check whether the tool tracks the kind of information needed, whether it involves trading, and what rules apply before using it. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2] Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. [3] Artificial Analysis provides model comparison information. [5]
Kalshi safety details
Is Kalshi a safe place to trade? Kalshi is subject to regulatory oversight by the CFTC in the United States. [1] Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. [1] Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. [1]
Kalshi and Polymarket comparison
What is the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket? Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future. [1] Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. [3] Polymarket operates globally through separate legal entities. [3] Check the rules that apply to the platform being considered.
Model Odds access details
Is Model Odds free to use? Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [2] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. [2] Developers can check whether this setup matches their needs before using it.
AI model comparison options
Where can developers compare AI models? Artificial Analysis lets users compare models side by side on intelligence, pricing, speed, latency, benchmarks and more. [5] Model Odds focuses on release chances for Anthropic and OpenAI model families. [2]
AI release tracking options
Can a developer follow AI releases without trading? Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2] It also lists past releases on separate company pages. [2] Prediction markets can be considered when the goal is placing a trade on an event.
Frequently asked questions
Is Kalshi a safe place to trade?
Kalshi is subject to regulatory oversight by the CFTC in the United States. [1] Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. [1] Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. [1] Review the trading details before deciding whether a prediction market matches the intended use.
What is the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future. [1] Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. [3] Polymarket operates globally through separate legal entities. [3] The platform rules depend on which service is being considered.
Is Model Odds free to use?
Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [2] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. [2] Developers can check these requirements before using the tracker for AI release estimates.
Where can developers compare AI models?
Artificial Analysis lets users compare models side by side on intelligence, pricing, speed, latency, benchmarks and more. [5] Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2]
Can a developer track AI releases without using a prediction market?
Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2] It lists past releases on separate company pages. [2]
Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [2]
Try Model OddsSources
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