Kalshi vs Manifold in 2026

Kalshi and Manifold side by side: what each page says it does, what it costs, the risks it names, and where Model Odds fits for model release odds.

By SupaKeeper · 2026-10-18

SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.

Kalshi describes itself as a prediction market for trading the future ^[1]. Manifold gives new users 1,000 (Mana) to start trading ^[2]. Model Odds ranks Anthropic and OpenAI model families by estimated chance of a release within 30 days, and it is free ^[3] ^[3].

Option	Own fee	Card fee	Starting offer or price
Kalshi	not published	not published	not published
Manifold	not published	not published	1,000 (Mana) for new users ^[2]
Model Odds	Free, API free, no account needed ^[3]	not published	Free ^[3]

The short answer

Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future ^[1]. Manifold lets you browse markets and start trading with a starting balance of 1,000 (Mana) ^[2]. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3].

On needs, Kalshi's pages say it is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC ^[1]. Manifold's pages say users can browse markets in politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun ^[2]. Model Odds' claims cover a ranked list of release odds ^[3] and an API that serves them ^[3].

What Kalshi and Manifold are built for

Kalshi's page is titled as a prediction market for trading the future ^[1]. It says Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC ^[1]. Its pages also name perpetual futures markets through Kalshi Pro ^[1] and an incentive program ^[1].

Kalshi's page says members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees ^[1].

Manifold's page says new users are given 1,000 (Mana) to start trading ^[2]. It lists market categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun ^[2]. It names a market primitive called Mana Perps ^[2]. The page carries a notice that Manifold is operated by Manifold Markets, Inc. ^[2].

What Model Odds is built for

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site.

It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release ^[3]. Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date ^[3].

The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted ^[3]. It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar ^[3]. Signals read automatically from company SDKs and docs, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds ^[3]. The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date ^[3].

An API serves per-line odds, the launch record and service health ^[3]. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[3].

Pricing and fees

Kalshi's page says members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees ^[1]. The Kalshi facts here do not state a fee amount, so the fee is not published here. Kalshi also runs an incentive program ^[1], and the facts give no terms for it.

Manifold's page says new users are given 1,000 (Mana) to start trading ^[2]. The Manifold facts here do not state a fee or a dollar price, so those are not published here ^[2].

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[3].

Setting it up and daily use

The Kalshi facts here say nothing about sign up, installing or daily use. Check Kalshi's own pages for how an account is opened.

For Manifold, the facts say new users are given 1,000 (Mana) to start trading ^[2], and that markets can be browsed by category ^[2]. Nothing further about setup or routine use is stated.

Model Odds is a website with a public API ^[3]. It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[3]. The website and the API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes ^[3]. You can call the API for per-line odds, the launch record or service health ^[3], or sign up with a confirmed email for alerts ^[3].

Things to check before you choose

Ask what you need the tool to do: trade on outcomes, or read estimated release odds for AI models. Kalshi's page describes trading ^[1], and Model Odds' claims describe a ranking of release odds ^[3].

Check the risk wording. Kalshi's page says members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees ^[1]. Check Manifold's own pages for its risk wording, since the facts here do not cover it.

Check costs. The fee amounts for Kalshi and Manifold are not in the facts here, so read their own fee pages.

Check which labs you need. Model Odds ranks Anthropic and OpenAI model families ^[3].

Check how fresh the data must be. Model Odds shares one snapshot cached for up to five minutes between its website and API ^[3].

How to choose

If you want a prediction market for trading the future under U.S. CFTC oversight, Kalshi's pages say that ^[1] ^[1].

If you want to start trading with a starting balance and browse markets by category, Manifold's pages describe 1,000 (Mana) for new users ^[2] and categories such as politics and technology ^[2].

If you want a ranking of Anthropic and OpenAI model families by estimated chance of release within 30 days, Model Odds' claims describe that ^[3].

If you want release odds from an API, Model Odds' claims describe one ^[3].

If you want a free tool with no account, Model Odds' claims say that ^[3].

Frequently asked questions

Is Kalshi regulated?

Kalshi's page says it is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC ^[1]. Its pages say members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees ^[1]. Read Kalshi's own pages for the full terms.

How much does Manifold give new users?

Manifold's page says new users are given 1,000 (Mana) to start trading ^[2]. The facts here do not state a dollar price or a fee for Manifold, so those are not published here ^[2]. Check Manifold's own pages for terms. The site is operated by Manifold Markets, Inc. ^[2].

What markets can you browse on Manifold?

Manifold's page lists categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun ^[2]. It also names a market primitive called Mana Perps ^[2]. The facts here say nothing more about how those markets work, so check Manifold's own pages before relying on them.

Is there a free way to see AI model release odds?

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[3]. It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. The website and the API share one snapshot cached for up to five minutes ^[3].

How does Model Odds estimate a release?

The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted ^[3]. It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar ^[3]. Each past launch it uses is confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline ^[3].

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[3]

Try Model Odds