--- {"title": "Kalshi vs Vellum in 2026: What Each Does and Costs", "description": "Kalshi, Vellum and Model Odds compared on what each does, what each costs and what to check before you pick one.", "url": "https://supakeeper.com/kalshi-vs-vellum/", "date": "2026-10-18"} --- Kalshi, Vellum and Model Odds compared on what each does, what each costs and what to check before you pick one. Kalshi, Vellum and Model Odds are three different ways to look at what comes next. Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future [^1]. Vellum is an AI assistant that is free to download and start [^2]. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days [^3]. Pick by the question you have. If you want to trade on what happens next, Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future [^1]. If you want an assistant that is free to download and start, Vellum says it is that [^2]. If you want the estimated chance that OpenAI or Anthropic releases a model within 30 days, Model Odds is built for that [^3]. | Option | What its sources say it does | Cost | Account or install | |---|---|---|---| | Kalshi | A prediction market for trading the future [^1]; subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC [^1]; offers perpetual futures markets through Kalshi Pro [^1]; runs an incentive program [^1] | not published in the facts | not published in the facts | | Vellum | Free to download and start [^2]; open source, so a user can inspect the code [^2]; lets a user switch between models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini or open-weight models via Ollama [^2]; Vellum Cloud runs each assistant in an isolated container provisioned exclusively for that user [^2] | Vellum Cloud subscriptions start at $30 per month (Mighty), $100 per month (Super) or $200 per month (Ultra), with dedicated compute, storage and bundled credits [^2]; first tasks are free [^4] | native to Mac and accessible on iOS, Android, web app, voice, email, Telegram, Slack and terminal [^2] | | Model Odds | Ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days [^3]; each past launch confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline [^3] | free, and so is its API, with no account needed [^3] | a website with a public API [^3]; a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript [^3] | ## The short answer Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future [^1]. Vellum is an AI assistant that is free to download and start [^2]. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days [^3]. Each one meets a different need. Kalshi's sources describe it as a way to trade on the future [^1]. Vellum's sources describe an assistant that acts on tasks, with conversation history, memory and credentials that stay on the user's machine by default [^2]. Model Odds' claims describe the estimated chance that OpenAI or Anthropic releases a model within 30 days [^3]. ## What Kalshi and Vellum are built for Kalshi's own page calls it a prediction market for trading the future [^1]. It offers perpetual futures markets through Kalshi Pro [^1]. Its page states that members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees [^1]. Vellum is free to download and start [^2], and Vellum Cloud runs each assistant in an isolated container provisioned exclusively for that user [^2]. It is native to Mac and accessible on iOS, Android, web app, voice, email, Telegram, Slack and terminal [^2]. It can send emails, manage a calendar, browse the web, create slides, write code, run deep research, monitor websites and run recurring tasks in the background [^2]. ## What Model Odds is built for Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. The product ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days [^3]. Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release [^3]. Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date [^3]. It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar [^3]. The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted [^3]. Signals read automatically from company SDKs and docs, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds [^3]. The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date [^3]. ## Pricing and fees The facts here state no price for Kalshi, so its price is not published here [^1]. Its page does note that members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees, but it gives no fee amounts [^1]. Vellum is free to download and start [^2]. If a user chooses Vellum Cloud, subscription plans start at $30 per month (Mighty), $100 per month (Super) or $200 per month (Ultra), with dedicated compute, storage and bundled credits [^2]. The Super plan costs $100 per month and includes a medium computer with 2.5 vCPU, 5 GiB and 30 GB storage [^4]. Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed [^3]. If you need the cost of Kalshi for your own use, check its own pages, since the facts here do not state one. ## Setting it up and daily use Kalshi is a prediction market, and its facts here say nothing about installing or setting anything up, so check its own pages for that. Vellum is free to download and start [^2] and can be switched to Vellum Cloud, where each assistant runs in an isolated container provisioned exclusively for that user [^2]. Conversation history, memory and credentials stay on the user's machine and are never used to train models [^2]. It includes built-in skills for Google Workspace, Slack, Notion and the filesystem, and can be extended with community plugins or custom skills [^2]. Model Odds is a website with a public API [^3]. It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript [^3]. The website and the API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes [^3]. A user can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time [^3]. ## Things to check before you choose Ask what you need the tool to tell you. Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future [^1], Vellum is free to download and start [^2], and Model Odds ranks release chances [^3]. Ask whether you want certainty. Model Odds says each past launch must be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline [^3]. Ask whether your data should stay local. Vellum says conversation history, memory and credentials stay on the user's machine [^2]. Ask about data freshness. Model Odds' website and API share a snapshot cached for up to five minutes [^3]. Ask what a subscription buys. Vellum's cloud plans bundle compute, storage and credits [^2]. ## How to choose Match the need to the tool whose sources say it meets it. If the need is to trade on the future, Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future [^1]. If the need is an assistant that acts on tasks and keeps history on the machine, Vellum's sources describe that [^2] [^2]. If the need is the estimated chance that OpenAI or Anthropic releases a model within 30 days, with each past release checked against an official post and an independent timeline, Model Odds is built for that [^3] [^3]. If the need is an API, Model Odds offers a public API without an account [^3] [^3]. Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. ## Frequently asked questions ### What is Kalshi and what does it do? Kalshi's own page calls it a prediction market for trading the future [^1]. It offers perpetual futures markets through Kalshi Pro [^1] and runs an incentive program [^1]. Its page states that members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees [^1]. ### What is Vellum and is it free to start? Vellum is an AI assistant that is free to download and start [^2]. Vellum Cloud runs each assistant in an isolated container provisioned exclusively for that user [^2]. It can send emails, manage a calendar, browse the web and run recurring tasks in the background [^2]. ### How much does Vellum Cloud cost? Vellum Cloud subscription plans start at $30 per month (Mighty), $100 per month (Super) or $200 per month (Ultra), with dedicated compute, storage and bundled credits [^2]. The Super plan costs $100 per month and includes a medium computer with 2.5 vCPU, 5 GiB and 30 GB storage [^4]. Vellum is free to download and start [^2]. ### Is Model Odds free to use? Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed [^3]. It is a website with a public API [^3], and it is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript [^3]. A user can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time [^3]. The website and the API share one snapshot cached for up to five minutes [^3]. ### Can Model Odds tell when a model will be released? Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days [^3]. Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date [^3]. The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted [^3]. Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [^3] - [Visit Model Odds](/go/start-modelodds) ## Sources [^1]: Kalshi, kalshi.com, read 2026-10-08 (https://kalshi.com) [^2]: Vellum, vellum.ai, read 2026-10-09 (https://www.vellum.ai) [^3]: Model Odds' own description of itself (the product of this site's publisher) (/go/start-modelodds) [^4]: Vellum, vellum.ai/pricing, read 2026-10-09 (https://www.vellum.ai/pricing)