--- {"title": "LLM Stats vs Polymarket in 2026", "description": "LLM Stats and Polymarket compared on what each does, what each costs and what to check before you pick one for AI model questions.", "url": "https://supakeeper.com/llm-stats-vs-polymarket/", "date": "2026-10-30"} --- LLM Stats and Polymarket compared on what each does, what each costs and what to check before you pick one for AI model questions. This page compares LLM Stats and Polymarket on what each does, what each costs and what to check before you pick one, and it adds Model Odds as a third option. | Option | What its sources say it does | Cost | Account or install | |---|---|---|---| | LLM Stats | Tracks 408 canonical models [^1]. Ranks models by intelligence, speed and price [^1]. Combines benchmark tests such as GPQA and SWE-Bench Verified, along with pricing, into one comparable ranking [^1]. | not published | Installation not published. Its page offers a weekly email digest of models, benchmarks and analysis [^1]. | | Polymarket | Its page describes it as a prediction market [^2]. It operates globally through separate legal entities [^2]. Its international platform is not regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and operates independently [^2]. Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC, doing business as Polymarket US, and is regulated by the CFTC [^2]. Trading is blocked in the United States on its main site [^2]. | not published | not published | | Model Odds | Ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days [^3]. Its API serves odds for each model line, the launch record and service health [^3]. | Free, and so is its API [^3]. | No account needed [^3]. It is a website that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript [^3]. | ## The short answer For a developer, LLM Stats is a place to read scores for AI models, and every score is sourced from public benchmarks and live API metrics [^1]. Its scores are also updated continuously [^1]. Polymarket is described in the table above, with each of its statements cited there. Model Odds is the product this page covers, and it ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days [^3]. Pick by the question you have. If you want to compare how AI models score, the LLM Stats sources describe that work [^1]. If you want to know which Anthropic or OpenAI model family may release next, Model Odds is built for that question [^3]. ## What LLM Stats and Polymarket are built for LLM Stats says its scores are updated continuously from public benchmarks and live API metrics [^1]. It states that every score is sourced from those same public benchmarks and live API metrics [^1]. For a developer, that means each score points back to the two kinds of source the page names. A separate open model leaderboard filters its catalog to models with publicly released weights, which means the trained model files are published for anyone to use [^1]. Polymarket is covered in the table above, which sets out what its own pages say, with a citation on each statement. Read the pages of both tools on their own terms before you rely on either one for a decision. ## What Model Odds is built for Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript [^3]. It is free, and so is its API, with no account needed [^3]. It is a website with a public API [^3]. The API serves odds for each model line, the launch record and service health [^3]. Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date [^3]. It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar [^3]. The estimate looks at the gaps between recent launches and takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted [^3]. Signals read from company developer kits (SDKs) and docs, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds, never lower them [^3]. The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date [^3]. Anthropic and OpenAI each have their own page listing every past release [^3]. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time [^3]. ## Pricing and fees The facts used for LLM Stats do not state a price for using the site, so no price is given here. For LLM Stats, the cost is not published, so check its own site before you rely on any figure. Polymarket's fees are not published in the facts used here either, and the table shows the same for it. Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed [^3]. Neither rival's facts describe a trial or a discount, so none is listed. ## Setting it up and daily use The LLM Stats facts describe how its scores are sourced and updated [^1], but they say nothing about installing or signing in, so check its site for setup. Using its scores day to day means checking that the figures match the public benchmarks and live API metrics it names [^1]. The facts used here say nothing about setting up Polymarket, so check its own pages for that. Model Odds is a website that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript, so you open it in a browser tab [^3]. It is a website with a public API, so a developer can call that API for odds, the launch record and service health [^3] [^3]. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts [^3]. The website and the API share one snapshot cached for up to five minutes [^3]. ## Things to check before you choose Ask whether your question is about model scores, about release timing, or about something else. Ask whether you need the figures on an exact day. Model Odds keeps a page for each company that lists every past release [^3], and it can replay past dates [^3]. Ask how fresh the figures must be. Model Odds caches its shared snapshot for up to five minutes [^3], and LLM Stats says its scores are updated continuously [^1]. Check where the numbers come from. LLM Stats says every score is sourced from public benchmarks and live API metrics [^1], and Model Odds lets signals from company developer kits raise the odds but never lower them [^3]. Check the terms and any region notices on each tool's own site before you sign up or use it. ## How to choose If you want to compare how AI models score, the LLM Stats sources describe a ranking built on public benchmarks and live API metrics [^1]. If you want to know which Anthropic or OpenAI model family may release next, Model Odds ranks each one by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days [^3]. If you want to see how an estimate would have looked on a past date, Model Odds can replay any past date without later data [^3]. For a question about Polymarket, the table names what its own pages say, and you can check those statements there. Model Odds is one option among several, so match each of your needs to the tool whose sources meet it. ## Frequently asked questions ### Is Model Odds free to use? Yes. Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed [^3]. It is a website that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript [^3]. Its API is a public one that serves odds for each model line, the launch record and service health [^3]. The facts for Polymarket and LLM Stats used here do not state a price, so none is given for them. ### Does LLM Stats publish scores from public sources? Yes. LLM Stats says every score is sourced from public benchmarks and live API metrics [^1]. Its scores are updated continuously from those same sources [^1]. Its open model leaderboard filters its catalog to models with publicly released weights, which means the trained model files are published for anyone to use [^1]. The fees for LLM Stats are not published in the facts used here, so check its own site for those. ### Can Model Odds replay past release dates? Yes. The Model Odds estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date [^3]. Each past launch it uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date [^3]. It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar [^3]. Anthropic and OpenAI each have their own page listing every past release [^3]. ### Does Polymarket charge a fee to use it? The facts used for this page do not state a fee for Polymarket, so none is given here. Check its own site for any charges before you sign up or use it. The table above sets out what Polymarket's own pages say about where it operates and who runs it, with each statement cited there. Model Odds is free, with no account needed [^3]. ### Does LLM Stats estimate when new models will be released? The facts used on this page do not describe release estimates from LLM Stats, so check its own pages for that. LLM Stats says its scores are updated continuously from public benchmarks and live API metrics [^1]. For release timing, Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days [^3]. It also keeps a launch record in which each past launch is confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline [^3]. Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [^3] - [Visit Model Odds](/go/start-modelodds) ## Sources [^1]: LLM Stats, llm-stats.com, read 2026-10-18 (https://llm-stats.com) [^2]: Polymarket, polymarket.com, read 2026-10-08 (https://polymarket.com) [^3]: Model Odds' own description of itself (the product of this site's publisher) (/go/start-modelodds)