SupaKeeper Plain comparisons of AI coding tools

Manifold alternatives in 2026

Searching for Manifold alternatives? See what Manifold lists and how Model Odds estimates Anthropic and OpenAI release odds, with a table and checks.

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Manifold offers 1,000 to start trading. [1] The site lists categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun. [1] Model Odds is a free website and API that ranks Anthropic and OpenAI model families by their estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2] [2]

OptionWhat it doesFeePlatform
ManifoldLists categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun. [1]Manifold offers 1,000 to start trading. [1] Card fee: not publishedNot published
Model OddsRanks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2]Free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [2] Card fee: not publishedWeb app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. [2]

Why developers look past Manifold

Manifold is operated by Manifold Markets, Inc. [1] One page on the site is titled Mana Perps, described as a new market primitive. [1]

The site lists categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun. [1] A developer who only wants to know when the next AI model might ship may be looking for something narrower than a broad set of categories. The facts here do not say how Manifold handles AI model releases, so check its technology category for the specific questions it lists.

The facts for Manifold also say nothing about an API, alerts, or how a market's chance is worked out. Check those points on its own pages before deciding whether it covers the job.

Model Odds: estimated odds of Anthropic and OpenAI model releases

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2] Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release. [2]

The estimate is built from the gaps between recent launches, and it allows for how long the current wait has already lasted. [2] It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar. [2]

Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date. [2] Signals read automatically from the companies' SDKs and docs, and from outside model lists only when two of them agree, can only raise the odds. [2]

The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date. [2]

Model Odds for developers: API, alerts and price

An API serves per-line odds (/api/v1/odds), the launch record (/api/v1/launches) and service health (/api/v1/health). [2] That lets a developer pull the same numbers into their own tools.

You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time. [2]

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [2] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. [2] Model Odds is a website with a public API. [2]

The website and the API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes. [2]

How to pick the right Manifold alternative

Stay with Manifold when the categories it lists matter: politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun. [1] Check whether the technology category has the AI release questions you care about, since the facts here do not say.

Stay with Manifold when you want to get 1,000 to start trading. [1]

Choose Model Odds when the question is when an Anthropic or OpenAI model family might ship. It ranks each family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2] Check the error bar, because the spread between the three estimators is published. [2]

Choose Model Odds when a program needs the numbers. The API serves odds, the launch record and service health. [2]

Choose Model Odds when you want an email when a company drops a model. [2]

Check how fresh the numbers must be. Model Odds shares one snapshot cached for up to five minutes between the site and the API. [2]

Things to check before you choose

Ask whether the tool has to include labs beyond Anthropic and OpenAI. Model Odds ranks Anthropic and OpenAI model families. [2] For Manifold, check its technology category for the labs and models it lists.

Ask whether you need an API. Model Odds offers one. [2] The facts for Manifold do not mention one, so check its pages.

Ask how a number was produced. Model Odds builds the estimate from the gaps between recent launches. [2] For Manifold, check how a market's chance is shown.

Frequently asked questions

Is there a free Manifold alternative for tracking AI model releases?

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [2] It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2] Manifold offers 1,000 to start trading. [1] Check Manifold's pages for any other fees.

What does Manifold offer?

Manifold is operated by Manifold Markets, Inc. [1] It offers a market type called Mana Perps. [1] Users can browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun. [1] Check its pages for anything beyond these points, such as an API or alerts.

Does Model Odds have an API?

Yes. An API serves per-line odds (/api/v1/odds), the launch record (/api/v1/launches) and service health (/api/v1/health). [2] The API is free with no account needed. [2] The website and the API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes. [2]

How does Model Odds estimate the chance of a model release?

The estimate is built from the gaps between recent launches, and it allows for how long the current wait has already lasted. [2] It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar. [2] Each past launch it uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline. [2]

Are there email alerts when a new AI model is released?

Model Odds lets you sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time. [2] Anthropic and OpenAI each also get their own page that lists every past release. [2] For Manifold, check its pages for alert options.

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [2]

Try Model Odds

Sources

  1. Manifold, manifold.markets, read 2026-10-08
  2. Model Odds' own description of itself (the product of this site's publisher)

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