Manifold vs Polymarket in 2026

Manifold and Polymarket compared on what each does, what it costs and what to check first, with Model Odds as a third option for AI model release odds.

By SupaKeeper · 2026-10-11

SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.

Manifold gives new users 1,000 Mana to start trading ^[1]. Polymarket calls itself the world's largest prediction market ^[2], and trading on its main site is blocked in the United States ^[2]. Model Odds ranks Anthropic and OpenAI model families by their chance of a release within 30 days ^[3].

Option	Own fee	Card fee	Account
Manifold	Own fee not published; card fee not published; new users get 1,000 Mana, the site's own unit with no money price published, to start trading ^[1]	not published	not published
Polymarket	not published	not published	not published
Model Odds	Free, and so is its API ^[3]	not published	No account needed ^[3]

The short answer

Manifold's page says new users get 1,000 Mana to start trading ^[1]. Polymarket is a prediction market that describes itself as the world's largest ^[2]. Model Odds gives a developer a ranked list of Anthropic and OpenAI model families by estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3].

Manifold's sources cover browsing markets in categories such as technology ^[1] and a newer market type named Mana Perps ^[1]. Polymarket's sources cover that trading is blocked in the United States on its main site ^[2]. Model Odds has a public API that serves the odds, the launch record and service health ^[3].

What Manifold and Polymarket are built for

Manifold. Its page offers a newer market type named Mana Perps, and the sources here say nothing more about how it works ^[1]. Users can browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun ^[1]. New users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading ^[1]. The site is operated by Manifold Markets, Inc. ^[1]

Polymarket. Its page title calls it the world's largest prediction market ^[2]. It says it operates globally through separate legal entities ^[2]. Trading is blocked in the United States on its main site ^[2]. Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market ^[2]. The international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently ^[2].

The sources given here say nothing about developer tools or data access for either site.

What Model Odds is built for

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site.

It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release ^[3]. Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date ^[3].

The estimate is based on the gaps between recent launches, and it counts how long the current wait has already lasted ^[3]. Three separate methods run side by side, and the page shows how far apart their results are, so you can see how much trust to put in the odds ^[3]. Signals read automatically from the companies' own developer tools and technical documents, and from outside model lists when two of them agree, can only increase the odds ^[3]. The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date ^[3].

An API serves the odds, the launch record and service health ^[3].

Pricing and fees

Manifold's page says new users get 1,000 Mana to start trading ^[1]. Mana is the figure its page uses, and the sources given here do not state a card fee or a money price for it, so those are not published here.

Polymarket's sources given here state no trading fee, no card fee and no price, so they are not published here. They do say trading is blocked in the United States on its main site ^[2].

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[3]. No card fee is stated for Model Odds, so none is published here.

Check each site's own pages for current fees before you rely on any of them.

Setting it up and daily use

For Manifold, the sources say new users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading ^[1] and that markets can be browsed by category ^[1]. They say nothing more about setup or routine use.

For Polymarket, the sources say trading is blocked in the United States on its main site ^[2]. They say nothing more about setup or routine use.

Model Odds is a website with a public API ^[3]. It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[3]. The website and the API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes ^[3]. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[3].

Things to check before you choose

Ask which question you need answered: a market you can trade in, or odds on when a model family is released. Manifold's page speaks of trading markets ^[1], and Model Odds speaks of release odds for Anthropic and OpenAI ^[3].

Check where you live. Polymarket says trading is blocked in the United States on its main site ^[2], and its international platform is not regulated by the CFTC ^[2].

Check whether you need an API. Ask Manifold and Polymarket whether they offer one, since the facts here do not say. Model Odds has a public API ^[3].

Check which companies you need covered, and how fresh the data must be. Model Odds shares one snapshot cached for up to five minutes ^[3].

How to choose

If you want to browse markets in categories such as technology, Manifold's page lists them ^[1].

If you want to start trading with a starting balance, Manifold's page says new users get 1,000 Mana ^[1].

If you want a platform that calls itself the world's largest prediction market, that is Polymarket's description of itself ^[2]. If you want a CFTC-regulated option in the US, Polymarket's page describes Polymarket US that way ^[2].

If you want ranked odds of an Anthropic or OpenAI release within 30 days, Model Odds describes that ^[3].

If you want a free API with no account, Model Odds states that ^[3].

Frequently asked questions

Is Manifold free to start?

Manifold's page says new users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading ^[1]. The sources given here do not state a fee, a card price or a money price for Mana, so those are not published here. Check Manifold's own pages for current terms before you rely on it.

Can you use Polymarket in the United States?

Polymarket says trading is blocked in the United States on its main site ^[2]. Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market ^[2]. Check its own pages for eligibility.

Is Polymarket regulated?

Polymarket says its international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently ^[2]. Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market ^[2]. It also says it operates globally through separate legal entities ^[2].

What does Manifold offer besides basic markets?

Manifold's page offers a newer market type named Mana Perps, and the sources here say nothing more about how it works ^[1]. It lets users browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun ^[1]. The sources given here say nothing about developer tools.

Is there a free tool for AI model release odds?

Model Odds ranks Anthropic and OpenAI model families by estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. It is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[3].

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[3]

Try Model Odds