Manifold vs Vellum in 2026: What Each Tool Does

Q: Is Vellum free to download?

Vellum's pages say it is free to download and start. Its pages also say new users get their first tasks free. Vellum Cloud subscriptions start at $30 per month for Mighty, $100 per month for Super, or $200 per month for Ultra, with dedicated compute, storage and bundled credits. Those plans apply if you choose Vellum Cloud, so the free download is separate from them.

Compare Manifold and Vellum with Model Odds on what each does, what each costs and what to check before you pick one for your developer work.

By SupaKeeper · 2026-10-20

SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.

Manifold lets you browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun ^[1]. Vellum is an assistant that is free to download and start, and it is accessible on Mac, iOS, Android, web app, voice, email, Telegram, Slack and terminal ^[2] ^[2]. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. Pick by the task you have: market browsing points to Manifold, and release odds for Anthropic and OpenAI point to Model Odds.

Option	What its sources say it does	Cost	Account or install
Manifold	Lets users browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun ^[1]	New users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading ^[1]	not published
Vellum	An assistant accessible on Mac, iOS, Android, web app, voice, email, Telegram, Slack and terminal ^[2]	Free to download and start ^[2]. Cloud subscriptions start at $30 per month for Mighty, $100 per month for Super, or $200 per month for Ultra ^[2]	Download to start ^[2]
Model Odds	Ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]; API for odds, launch record and service health ^[3]	Free, and its API is free too ^[3]	No account needed ^[3]; a website with a public API ^[3]

The short answer

Manifold lets you browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun, and you can trade on them ^[1] ^[1]. Vellum is an assistant that can send emails, manage calendars, browse the web, write code, run deep research and run recurring tasks in the background ^[2]. Model Odds estimates the chance that each Anthropic and OpenAI model family gets a new release within 30 days ^[3], and it provides an API for those odds ^[3].

The needs each one's sources say it meets are different. Manifold's sources cover browsing and trading markets ^[1] ^[1]. Vellum's sources cover an assistant. Model Odds covers release odds for Anthropic and OpenAI model families and an API for them ^[3] ^[3].

What Manifold, Vellum is built for

Manifold's pages say users can browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun. Manifold's pages say new users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading. ^[1] The facts here say nothing more about how Manifold's markets are set up or settled, so check its own pages for those details.

Vellum's pages say it is free to download and start ^[2]. Vellum's pages say it is open source, so you can inspect the code yourself. Vellum's pages say it is open source, so you can inspect the code yourself. Vellum's pages say it can send emails, manage your calendar, browse the web, create slides, write code, run deep research, monitor websites and run recurring tasks in the background ^[2].

What Model Odds is built for

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[3] Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release. ^[3] Each past launch the estimate uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date. ^[3]

Model Odds runs three separate estimates side by side and publishes how far apart they are. ^[3] The estimate is a statistical method fitted to the gaps between recent launches, and it accounts for how long the current wait has already lasted. ^[3] You can replay any past date with the estimator, which uses no data from after that date. ^[3] For a developer, the API serves odds, the launch record and service health. ^[3]

Pricing and fees

Manifold's pages say new users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading. ^[1] The facts here publish no other price for Manifold, so check its own pages for any cost beyond that.

Vellum's pages say it is free to download and start. ^[2] They also say new users get their first tasks free. ^[4] If you choose Vellum Cloud, subscription plans start at $30 per month for Mighty, $100 per month for Super, or $200 per month for Ultra, with dedicated compute, storage and bundled credits. ^[2]

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[3]

Setting it up and daily use

Manifold's pages say new users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading. ^[1] The facts here say nothing more about how you open an account or trade day to day, so check Manifold's own pages for those steps.

Vellum is free to download and start ^[2]. Its assistant is accessible on Mac, iOS, Android, web app, voice, email, Telegram, Slack and terminal ^[2]. Vellum Cloud runs each assistant in an isolated environment set up for that user ^[2].

Model Odds is a website with a public API. ^[3] It runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. ^[3] The website and the API share one saved copy of the data, kept for up to five minutes. ^[3] You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's alerts at the same time. ^[3]

Things to check before you choose

Ask what you need the tool to do. Manifold's pages describe browsing and trading markets. Vellum's pages describe an assistant that can run tasks across email, the web, code and more ^[2]. Model Odds describes release odds for Anthropic and OpenAI model families and an API for them ^[3].

Check where your data goes. Vellum's pages say Vellum Cloud runs each assistant in an isolated environment set up for that user ^[2], and Model Odds's website and API share data kept for up to five minutes ^[3].

Check whether you need a paid plan. Vellum Cloud subscriptions start at $30 per month ^[2], while Model Odds is free ^[3]. The facts here give no charge for Manifold beyond starting Mana, so check Manifold's own pages for how it is funded and whether any fees apply.

Check whether a tool has an API before you build on it. The facts here say nothing about a Manifold API, so look at Manifold's own pages.

How to choose

If your need is browsing and trading on markets in categories such as politics or technology, Manifold's sources describe that. If your need is an assistant, Vellum's sources describe that. If your need is estimated release chances for Anthropic and OpenAI model families, or an API for those odds, launch records and service health, Model Odds's claims describe that ^[3] ^[3]. Match the tool to the need, and check the points above before you choose.

Frequently asked questions

Is Manifold free to use?

Manifold's pages say new users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading. ^[1] The 1,000 starting Mana is the only figure given here. The facts provided here give no other price for Manifold, so this page does not state a cost beyond that. Check Manifold's own pages for any fees or account terms before you start trading.

Is Vellum free to download?

Vellum's pages say it is free to download and start. ^[2] Its pages also say new users get their first tasks free. ^[4] Vellum Cloud subscriptions start at $30 per month for Mighty, $100 per month for Super, or $200 per month for Ultra, with dedicated compute, storage and bundled credits. ^[2] Those plans apply if you choose Vellum Cloud, so the free download is separate from them.

What does Model Odds track?

Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[3] Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release. ^[3] Each past launch it uses is confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date. ^[3] It also provides an API for odds, the launch record and service health. ^[3]

Can Model Odds send release alerts?

Yes. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's alerts at the same time. ^[3] The website and API share one saved copy of the data, kept for up to five minutes, so the figures you see can be up to five minutes old. ^[3]

Which should a developer choose between Manifold, Vellum and Model Odds?

The answer depends on the need. Manifold's pages describe browsing and trading markets. Vellum's pages describe an assistant. Model Odds describes release odds for Anthropic and OpenAI model families, past release records and an API for them. ^[3] ^[3] Match the tool to the task you have.