Model Odds vs Polymarket in 2026

Q: Is Polymarket available in the United States?

Trading is blocked in the United States on the main site . Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market . The international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently .

Q: Can developers get Model Odds data through an API?

Model Odds is a website with a public API . The API serves per-line odds at /api/v1/odds, the launch record at /api/v1/launches and service health at /api/v1/health . The website and the API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes . The API is free with no account needed .

Model Odds and Polymarket compared on what each tracks, what each costs, how each is set up and what to check before you pick.

By SupaKeeper · 2026-10-20

SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.

Model Odds and Polymarket serve different needs. Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market ^[1]. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[2]. A reader here is weighing a model release tracker against a prediction market.

Option	Free to use	Paid plan	Account	Platform
Polymarket	Not published	Not published	Not published	Describes itself as the world's largest prediction market ^[1]
Model Odds	Not published	Not published	Not published	Web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[2]

The short answer

Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[2]. Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market ^[1]. On needs, Model Odds's claims cover per-company pages that list every past release ^[2], a launch record shown with its date and confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline ^[2], and signals read automatically from company SDKs and docs ^[2]. Polymarket's facts cover that trading is blocked in the United States ^[1]. Model Odds is free with no account needed ^[2], while Polymarket's fees are not published.

What Polymarket is built for

Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market ^[1]. Trading is blocked in the United States on the main site ^[1]. Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market ^[1]. The international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently ^[1]. If you want to know what markets are offered or how trading works, check Polymarket's own pages, since no such detail is published here.

What Model Odds is built for

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[2]. Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release ^[2]. Every past launch has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date ^[2]. It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar ^[2]. The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted ^[2]. Signals read automatically from company SDKs and docs, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds ^[2]. The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date ^[2]. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[2].

Pricing and fees

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[2]. It is free ^[2]. Polymarket's fees are not published here. If you need Polymarket's fee schedule, check its own pages, because no fee is published here.

Setting it up and daily use

Model Odds is a website with a public API ^[2]. It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[2], so a developer opens it in a browser and needs no install. The website and the API share one snapshot, which is cached for up to five minutes ^[2]. For daily use, the API serves per-line odds at /api/v1/odds, the launch record at /api/v1/launches and service health at /api/v1/health ^[2]. The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date ^[2]. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[2]. Polymarket's setup steps are not published here, so check its own pages for how to open an account and trade.

Things to check before you choose

Check which need is yours: trading on outcomes, or following AI model release timing. Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market ^[1], while Model Odds ranks estimated chances of an Anthropic or OpenAI model release within 30 days ^[2]. Check where you can trade. Trading is blocked in the United States on the main site ^[1]. Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market ^[1], while the international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently ^[1]. Check how fresh the data is. Model Odds shares one snapshot cached for up to five minutes ^[2], and each launch must be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline ^[2]. Check cost. Model Odds is free with no account ^[2], while Polymarket's fees are not published.

How to choose

If you want estimated chances of an Anthropic or OpenAI model release within 30 days, Model Odds's claims describe that ^[2]. If you want per-company pages that list every past release for Anthropic and OpenAI, Model Odds's claims describe that ^[2]. If you want an API for per-line odds, the launch record and service health, Model Odds's claims describe that ^[2]. If you want to trade in a prediction market, Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest ^[1]. If you are in the United States, trading is blocked on the main site ^[1], and Polymarket US is operated as a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market ^[1]. If you want a tool that needs no account and no install, Model Odds's claims describe that ^[2] ^[2].

Frequently asked questions

Is Model Odds free to use?

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[2]. No other price is published here. Polymarket's fees are not published here, so check its own pages if you need a fee schedule.

Is Polymarket available in the United States?

Trading is blocked in the United States on the main site ^[1]. Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market ^[1]. The international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently ^[1].

What data does Model Odds use to estimate a release?

The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted ^[2]. Every past launch must be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline and is listed with its date ^[2]. Signals read automatically from company SDKs and docs, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds ^[2].

Can developers get Model Odds data through an API?

Model Odds is a website with a public API ^[2]. The API serves per-line odds at /api/v1/odds, the launch record at /api/v1/launches and service health at /api/v1/health ^[2]. The website and the API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes ^[2]. The API is free with no account needed ^[2].

Is Polymarket regulated?

Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market ^[1]. The international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently ^[1]. Trading is blocked in the United States on the main site ^[1].

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[2]

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