---
{"title": "Model Odds vs Vellum Comparison in 2026", "description": "Compare Model Odds and Vellum on features, pricing, setup, and what developers should consider when choosing a model release tracker in 2026.", "url": "https://supakeeper.com/modelodds-vs-vellum/", "date": "2026-10-20"}
---
Compare Model Odds and Vellum on features, pricing, setup, and what developers should consider when choosing a model release tracker in 2026.

Model Odds provides free release‑odds tracking with a web app and public API [^1] [^1], while Vellum can be downloaded and started for free [^2] and offers cloud subscription plans with assistant capabilities [^2].

| Option | What its sources say it does | Cost | Account or install |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vellum | Free download and start [^2]; can switch between OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini or open‑weight models via Ollama [^2]; offers built‑in skills for Google Workspace, Slack, Notion and filesystem [^2]; can send emails, manage calendars and run background tasks [^2] | $30/month for Mighty, $100/month for Super, $200/month for Ultra; Super plan includes 2.5 vCPU, 5 GiB RAM and 30 GB storage [^2] [^3] | Free download and start [^2]; Vellum Cloud runs each assistant in an isolated container [^2] |
| Model Odds | Ranks Anthropic and OpenAI model families by 30‑day release odds; lists verified past launches; runs three estimators and shows error spread; uses renewal process and SDK signals; can replay past dates; offers email alerts for every company’s drops [^1] [^1] [^1] [^1] [^1] [^1] [^1] | Free; no account needed [^1] | Web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript [^1]; a website with a public API [^1] |

## The short answer

Model Odds shows the chance each Anthropic and OpenAI model will launch within 30 days and lets developers query odds via an API [^1] [^1]. Vellum lets developers run a local assistant for free and offers cloud subscriptions that add compute, storage and credits for higher‑volume use [^2] [^2]. Choose Model Odds if you need release‑odds data without a fee; choose Vellum if you need an assistant that runs locally or in the cloud with built‑in skills.

## What Vellum is built for

Vellum is free to download and start, letting users try the assistant without cost [^2]. The platform runs natively on Mac and is accessible on iOS, Android, web, voice, email, Telegram, Slack and terminal, giving developers many ways to interact [^2]. It can send emails, manage calendars, browse the web, create slides, write code, run deep research, monitor websites and execute recurring background tasks [^2]. High‑stakes actions such as emailing new contacts or spending credits require explicit user approval until trusted [^2]. Vellum is open‑source, allowing users to inspect its code [^2].

## What Model Odds is built for

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days [^1]. Each company gets its own page that lists every past release, confirmed by official posts and independent timelines [^1] [^1]. The service runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as an error bar [^1]. The estimate is a renewal process fitted on gaps between recent launches and accounts for how long the current wait has already lasted [^1]. Signals are read automatically from company SDKs, docs and third‑party catalogues when two agree, allowing the odds to rise [^1]. The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date [^1]. Users can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts; every subscriber receives every company’s drops at the same time [^1]. Model Odds is free, and its API is free with no account needed [^1] [^1]. It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript [^1] and the website and API share one snapshot cached for up to five minutes [^1].

## Pricing and fees

Vellum can be downloaded and started for free [^2]. If a user chooses Vellum Cloud, subscription plans start at $30 per month for Mighty, $100 per month for Super, or $200 per month for Ultra; each plan includes dedicated compute, storage and bundled credits [^2]. Model Odds is free and its API is free, with no account needed [^1]. No other fees are mentioned for either tool in the supplied facts or claims.

## Setting it up and daily use

Vellum can be downloaded and started for free [^2]. Model Odds is a website that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript [^1]; it is a website with a public API that serves per-line odds, the launch record and service health [^1] [^1], and developers can open the site and optionally sign up for email alerts [^1]. Vellum Cloud runs each assistant in an isolated container provisioned for that user [^2].

## Things to check before you choose

Determine whether you need release‑odds forecasts for Anthropic and OpenAI models or an assistant that can perform tasks like emailing and calendar management. Check if you require a free tool with no account versus a solution that may need a paid subscription for compute resources. Verify whether you want data to stay on your machine or are comfortable with cloud‑hosted containers. See if you need an API that provides odds, launch records and health checks without a key. Consider whether built‑in skills for Google Workspace, Slack and Notion are important for your workflow.

## How to choose

If the primary need is to see the estimated chance of a model release and to receive email alerts about new launches, Model Odds matches that need with its free odds ranking, verified launch record and public API [^1] [^1] [^1]. If the need is for a local or cloud‑based assistant that can send emails, manage calendars and run background tasks, Vellum provides those capabilities [^2]. Choose Vellum Cloud only if you need dedicated compute, storage and bundled credits, recognizing the subscription cost starts at $30 per month [^2].

## Frequently asked questions

### Is Model Odds free to use?

Model Odds is free, and its API is free with no account needed. The service provides release‑odds rankings, verified launch records and email alerts without charging users [^1] [^1] [^1].

### What does Vellum charge for cloud use?

Vellum Cloud subscription plans start at $30 per month for the Mighty tier, $100 per month for the Super tier, and $200 per month for the Ultra tier, with dedicated compute, storage and bundled credits [^2].

### Can you run Vellum without paying?

Yes. Vellum can be downloaded and started for free [^2].

### Does Model Odds provide an API for developers?

Yes. Model Odds offers a public API that serves per-line odds, the launch record and service health [^1]; it is a website that runs in the browser [^1] [^1].

### What platforms can Vellum’s assistant run on?

Vellum is native to Mac and is accessible on iOS, Android, web app, voice, email, Telegram, Slack and terminal, giving developers many ways to interact with the assistant [^2].

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [^1] - [Visit Model Odds](/go/start-modelodds)

## Sources

[^1]: Model Odds' own description of itself (the product of this site's publisher) (/go/start-modelodds)
[^2]: Vellum, vellum.ai, read 2026-10-09 (https://www.vellum.ai)
[^3]: Vellum, vellum.ai/pricing, read 2026-10-09 (https://www.vellum.ai/pricing)