Polymarket alternatives in 2026
Compare Polymarket alternatives in 2026: its US and international platforms, and Model Odds, which tracks Anthropic and OpenAI model release odds.
SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.
Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. [1] If you want odds on when Anthropic and OpenAI ship their next model, Model Odds ranks each model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2] Polymarket US and its international platform are the other two options compared here.
| Option | What it does | Who runs it or how it is regulated | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (international platform) | Describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. [1] | Not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently. [1] | Not published |
| Polymarket US | Trading is blocked in the United States on the main Polymarket site. [1] | Operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. [1] | Not published |
| Model Odds | Ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2] | Made by the team that publishes this site; a website with a public API. [2] | Free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [2] |
Why developers look past Polymarket
Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. [1] A developer who follows model launches may still want to check which version of the site applies to them and what kind of odds they need.
Polymarket operates globally through separate legal entities. [1] Trading is blocked in the United States on the main Polymarket site. [1] So whether you can use it depends on where you are.
The international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently. [1] Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. [1] Some readers want to read that difference before they pick a side.
The facts here say nothing about which model-release markets Polymarket lists, how they are priced, or what fees apply. Check the market pages and fee terms on the site itself.
Polymarket US: the platform for US users
Trading is blocked in the United States on the main Polymarket site. [1]
Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. [1]
The facts available here do not describe its fees, its list of markets or whether it carries markets on AI model releases. Check those on the site before relying on it for model launch odds.
Polymarket international platform: the global site
Polymarket operates globally through separate legal entities. [1] Its international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently. [1]
The site calls itself the world's largest prediction market. [1]
The facts here give no fee, market list or sign-up terms for this platform. Check where you live against the site's own access rules first, since trading is blocked in the United States on the main Polymarket site. [1]
Model Odds: release odds for Anthropic and OpenAI models
Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2] Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release. [2]
The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted. [2] It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar. [2] Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date. [2]
Signals read automatically from company SDKs and docs, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds. [2] The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date. [2]
An API serves per-line odds (/api/v1/odds), the launch record (/api/v1/launches) and service health (/api/v1/health). [2] You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time. [2]
Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [2] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. [2] The website and the API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes. [2]
How to pick the right Polymarket alternative
If you live in the United States, start from the fact that trading is blocked on the main Polymarket site. [1] Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. [1] Check its market list for the model-release questions you care about.
If you are outside the United States and want the global site, the international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently. [1] Read its terms and check that your location is allowed before you go further.
If you want a ranked list of Anthropic and OpenAI model families with an estimated chance of release within 30 days, Model Odds does that. [2] It also publishes the spread between its three estimators as the error bar, so you can see how far they disagree. [2]
If you want to read the numbers in your own code, the Model Odds API is free and needs no account. [2] It serves per-line odds, the launch record and service health. [2]
If you want to see how the estimate would have looked on an earlier date, the estimator can replay any past date without using later data. [2]
These are different kinds of tool. Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market, while Model Odds is a website with a public API. [1] [2] Check which one fits how you want to follow model launches.
Frequently asked questions
Is Polymarket available in the United States?
Trading is blocked in the United States on the main Polymarket site. [1] Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. [1] Check the site's own terms for what you can do from your location.
Is Polymarket regulated by the CFTC?
It depends on the platform. Polymarket's international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently. [1] Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. [1] Polymarket operates globally through separate legal entities. [1]
Is there a free Polymarket alternative for AI model release odds?
Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [2] It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. [2] It is a website with a public API. [2]
How does Model Odds estimate when a model will release?
The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted. [2] It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar. [2]
Is there an API for Anthropic and OpenAI model release data?
Model Odds has an API that serves per-line odds (/api/v1/odds), the launch record (/api/v1/launches) and service health (/api/v1/health). [2] The API is free, with no account needed. [2] The website and the API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes. [2]
Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. [2]
Try Model OddsSources
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