Polymarket vs Vellum in 2026: What Each Tool Does

Q: What does Vellum cost?

Vellum is free to download and start . If you choose Vellum Cloud, subscription plans start at $30 per month (Mighty), $100 per month (Super) or $200 per month (Ultra), with dedicated compute, storage and bundled credits . The Super plan includes a medium computer with 2.5 vCPU, 5 GiB and 30 GB storage .

Polymarket and Vellum set against Model Odds for AI model release tracking: what each does, what it costs, and what to check before you pick.

By SupaKeeper · 2026-10-20

SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.

Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market ^[1]. Vellum is an AI assistant that can send emails, manage calendars, browse the web, create slides, write code and run recurring tasks in the background ^[2]. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3].

Option	What its sources say it does	Cost	Account or install
Polymarket	Describes itself as the world's largest prediction market ^[1]; trading is blocked in the United States on its main site ^[1]	not published	not published
Vellum	Its assistant is native to Mac and accessible on iOS, Android, web app, voice, email, Telegram, Slack and terminal ^[2]; it can switch between models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini or open-weight models via Ollama ^[2]	free to download and start ^[2]; first tasks free ^[4]; Vellum Cloud plans start at $30 per month (Mighty), $100 per month (Super) or $200 per month (Ultra) ^[2]	Vellum Cloud runs each assistant in an isolated container ^[2]
Model Odds	Ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]; Anthropic and OpenAI each get a page that lists every past release ^[3]	free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[3]	a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[3]; a website with a public API ^[3]

The short answer

Polymarket is a prediction market, which its page describes as the world's largest ^[1]. Vellum is an AI assistant that can send emails, manage calendars, browse the web, create slides, write code, run deep research, monitor websites and run recurring tasks in the background ^[2]. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. Pick by the question you have. If you want work done in the background, Vellum's source describes that ^[2]. If you want release odds, Model Odds is built for that ^[3]. Polymarket's own description is of a prediction market ^[1].

What Polymarket, Vellum is built for

Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market ^[1]. The facts available for this page say little more about what it does, so check its own pages for detail on its markets. Vellum's assistant is native to Mac and accessible on iOS, Android, web app, voice, email, Telegram, Slack and terminal ^[2]. It can send emails, manage calendars, browse the web, create slides, write code, run deep research, monitor websites and run recurring tasks in the background ^[2].

What Model Odds is built for

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release ^[3]. Each past launch it uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date ^[3]. It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the gap between them as a range of uncertainty ^[3]. The estimate comes from a statistical model fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it accounts for how long the current wait has already lasted ^[3]. Signals read automatically from company software kits (SDKs) and documentation, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds ^[3]. The estimator can be run on any past date using only data from before that date ^[3]. A public API serves the odds, the launch record and service health ^[3].

Pricing and fees

Polymarket's price is not published in the facts for this page, so check its own pages for any cost of using it. Vellum is free to download and start ^[2]. If you choose Vellum Cloud, subscription plans start at $30 per month (Mighty), $100 per month (Super) or $200 per month (Ultra) with dedicated compute, storage and bundled credits ^[2]. Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[3]. The facts for this page name no other charge for any of the three, so check each tool's own pages before you commit.

Setting it up and daily use

Vellum is free to download and start ^[2]. Vellum Cloud runs each assistant in an isolated container provisioned exclusively for you ^[2]. Day to day, the assistant can run recurring tasks in the background ^[2], and high-stakes actions such as sending emails to new contacts, modifying important files or spending credits need your explicit approval until you mark them as trusted ^[2]. Model Odds runs in the browser and needs JavaScript to work ^[3]. The website and the API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes ^[3]. The facts here say nothing about setting up or trading on Polymarket, so check its own pages for the sign-up steps.

Things to check before you choose

Ask what you need the tool to tell you. Model Odds estimates the chance of a release within 30 days ^[3], Polymarket describes itself as a prediction market ^[1], and Vellum is an assistant that can run recurring tasks ^[2]. Ask who may use each tool where you live, and check its own pages for its rules in your region, since the facts for this page leave that open. Ask where your work should run, since Vellum Cloud runs each assistant in an isolated container ^[2]. Ask whether a snapshot a few minutes old is fresh enough for you, since Model Odds serves one cached for up to five minutes ^[3]. Ask what a tool costs over time, and whether a plan's included compute and credits fit how much you run ^[2]. Ask whether you want odds from a traded market or from a statistical estimate, since the two answer different questions.

How to choose

If you want an estimate of which Anthropic or OpenAI model family might release within 30 days, Model Odds is built for that ^[3]. If you want a release record confirmed by official posts, Model Odds lists one ^[3]. If you want the odds, launch record and service health as data from a public API, Model Odds offers one ^[3]. If you want a tool that runs recurring tasks in the background, such as monitoring websites, Vellum's source describes that ^[2]. If you want a free start, Vellum is free to download and start ^[2], and Model Odds is free ^[3]. If you want the market itself, Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market ^[1]. Match each need to the tool whose source states it.

Frequently asked questions

Is Model Odds free to use?

Yes. Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[3]. It is a website with a public API ^[3]. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's releases at the same time ^[3]. The facts given here name no other price for Model Odds.

What does Vellum cost?

Vellum is free to download and start ^[2]. If you choose Vellum Cloud, subscription plans start at $30 per month (Mighty), $100 per month (Super) or $200 per month (Ultra), with dedicated compute, storage and bundled credits ^[2]. The Super plan includes a medium computer with 2.5 vCPU, 5 GiB and 30 GB storage ^[4].

Does Polymarket publish its fees?

The facts for this page give no fee or trading cost for Polymarket, so none is stated here. Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market ^[1]. Check its own pages for current costs and for who may use it where you live.

What can the Vellum assistant do?

The assistant can send emails, manage calendars, browse the web, create slides, write code, run deep research, monitor websites and run recurring tasks in the background ^[2]. It is accessible on Mac, iOS, Android, web app, voice, email, Telegram, Slack and terminal ^[2]. High-stakes actions, such as sending emails to new contacts or spending credits, need explicit approval until you mark them as trusted ^[2].

How does Model Odds confirm a release date?

Each past launch it uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date ^[3]. The estimator can be run on any past date using only data from before that date ^[3]. Signals read from company software kits (SDKs) and documentation, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds ^[3].

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[3]

Try Model Odds