AI News by Smol AI vs Manifold in 2026

AI News by Smol AI and Manifold compared on what each does, what each costs and what to check before you pick one.

By SupaKeeper · 2026-10-23

SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.

AI News by Smol AI is a service you can subscribe to; its page says you can subscribe via RSS ^[1], and it says the service respects user privacy ^[1]. Manifold is a market where new users get 1,000 to start trading ^[2], and users can browse markets in categories from politics to fun ^[2]. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. The tools answer different questions. If reading what you subscribe to through your feed reader is what you want, AI News by Smol AI supports RSS ^[1]. If trading on what you expect to happen is what you want, Manifold is a market where users trade ^[2]. If a likely release within the next month from two labs is the question, Model Odds ranks the chances ^[3].

Option	What its sources say it does	Cost	Account or install
AI News by Smol AI	Summarizes top AI Discords, AI Reddits and AI X/Twitters and sends a roundup each day ^[1]; offers a search feature with the Cmd+K shortcut ^[1]; offers a customizable version ^[1]; respects user privacy ^[1]; supports RSS ^[1]	not published	not published in the facts
Manifold	Gives new users 1,000 to start trading ^[2]. Lets users browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun ^[2]. Its page notice names Manifold Markets, Inc. ^[2]	not published	not published in the facts
Model Odds	Ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]; runs three estimators side by side with the spread between them as the error bar ^[3]; each company gets its own page listing every past release ^[3]; offers an API for per-line odds, the launch record and service health ^[3]	free, no account needed ^[3]	no account ^[3]; a website with a public API that needs JavaScript ^[3]

The short answer

What AI News by Smol AI, Manifold is built for

Its page says users can subscribe via RSS ^[1]. The page says the service respects user privacy ^[1]. The page says users can reach out on social media or by sending an email ^[1]. Manifold is a market where users trade ^[2]. The page says new users are given 1,000 to start trading ^[2]. The page says users can browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun ^[2].

What Model Odds is built for

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release ^[3]. Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date ^[3]. The product runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar ^[3]. The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted ^[3]. Signals read automatically from company SDKs and docs, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds ^[3]. The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date ^[3]. An API serves per-line odds, the launch record and service health ^[3]. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[3].

Pricing and fees

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[3]. The facts given here do not state a dollar price for AI News by Smol AI, so it is not published here ^[1]. The facts given here do not state a dollar price for Manifold either, so it is not published here ^[2]. Its page says new users get 1,000 to start trading ^[2]. None of the sources describes a fee, trial or discount for either rival, so none is stated here. The only price given anywhere on this page is free for Model Odds ^[3]. If you need the cost of either rival for your own use, check its own pages, since the facts here do not state one.

Setting it up and daily use

AI News by Smol AI is used through a feed reader; its page says users can subscribe via RSS ^[1]. The page says the service respects user privacy ^[1], and users can reach out on social media or by sending an email ^[1]. Its page says new users are given 1,000 to start trading ^[2]. Its page says users can browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun ^[2]. Model Odds is a website with a public API ^[3]. It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[3]. The website and the API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes, so the figures can be up to five minutes old ^[3]. There is no account to set up and no paid tier ^[3]. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[3]. The facts here say nothing more about installing or configuring either rival, so check the tools' own pages for anything further.

Things to check before you choose

Ask what you need the tool to tell you. AI News by Smol AI is a service you subscribe to through RSS ^[1], Manifold is a market you trade in ^[2], and Model Odds ranks the chances of a release within 30 days ^[3]. Ask whether you want alerts; Model Odds emails subscribers on a confirmed address when drops happen ^[3], and the facts say nothing about alerts for either rival, so check their own pages. Ask how current the data must be; Model Odds shares one snapshot cached for up to five minutes ^[3]. Ask whether either rival lets you trade or subscribe the way you want, and check its own pages, since the facts here do not describe every option. Ask what each costs; Model Odds is free ^[3], and the facts here give no charge for either rival.

How to choose

Each tool meets a different need. If you want the chance of a release from Anthropic or OpenAI within the next month, Model Odds ranks every model family by that estimate ^[3]. If you want to trade on what you expect to happen, Manifold gives new users 1,000 to start trading ^[2] and offers markets in categories from politics to fun ^[2]. If you want to subscribe to a feed, AI News by Smol AI supports RSS ^[1] and says it respects user privacy ^[1]. If you want data through an interface you call directly, Model Odds is a website with a public API that needs no account ^[3] ^[3]. Match the question you have to the tool whose sources say it handles that question.

Frequently asked questions

Is AI News by Smol AI free to use?

The facts given here do not state a dollar price for AI News by Smol AI, so its cost is not published here ^[1]. Its page says users can subscribe via RSS ^[1], which points to a subscription you read in a feed reader. It says the service respects user privacy ^[1]. Check its own pages if you need the cost, since the facts here give none.

Does Manifold cost money to use?

The facts given here do not state a dollar price for Manifold, so its cost is not published here ^[2]. New users are given 1,000 to start trading ^[2]. Check its own pages if you need the cost.

Which tools rank when AI model releases happen?

Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release ^[3]. Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline ^[3]. The facts here do not say whether either rival offers ranking estimates, so check their own pages.

Can Manifold be used to trade on outcomes?

Yes. The page says new users are given 1,000 to start trading ^[2]. Users can browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun ^[2].

Does Model Odds need an account to use?

No. Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[3]. It is a website with a public API ^[3]. It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[3]. You can still sign up with a confirmed email if you want alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[3]. The website and the API share a snapshot cached for up to five minutes ^[3].

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[3]

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