How to find odds on AI model release dates for prediction market traders

Learn how prediction market traders can find odds on model release dates, what to check first, and which tools to compare before trading.

By SupaKeeper · 2026-10-23

SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.

To find odds on AI model release dates, pick the model families your trades depend on, find a source that estimates release chances for them, and check how each estimate was built before you rely on it. Model Odds is one option that publishes such estimates for Anthropic and OpenAI. ^[1]

Option	What it does	What to check
Model Odds	Ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[1]	Check whether your model families are among those covered, and whether its window matches your contract.
Company posts and documentation	Show announcements the company has made.	Check whether the posts cover the model families you trade on.
Personal tracking notes	A record you keep yourself of past launches and their dates.	Check that each entry has a date and a source you can point to.

What you need before you start

Before you look for odds, decide which AI model families your trades depend on. A release question is only useful when it names a specific family, so write those names down first.

Have the market rules in front of you. Check what counts as a release, which date ends the question, and whether a launch limited to a small group would count.

Know your time window. Odds for a release within a set number of days answer a different question than odds for a release by a fixed date, so match the tool's window to your contract.

Keep a simple record of past launches you already know about. It helps you judge whether an estimate matches what has happened before.

Decide how much weight you give an estimate compared with your own reading of company news. Write that decision down before you look at any numbers.

Step by step

Write the exact model family names that appear in your market, and keep the list short.
Confirm the rules of each contract: the release definition, the end date, and any limits on what counts.
Find a source that estimates release chances for those families. Prefer one that explains how the estimate is built, not only the number.
Check the source's record of past launches. Look for whether each listed launch shows a date and a source you can open.
Compare the estimate with a second method or source before you rely on it. A gap between estimates tells you the answer is uncertain.
Check whether the source shows its uncertainty. A range is more useful than one number with nothing around it.
Set a routine to recheck the odds as news arrives, since a new announcement can change the picture.
Record what you used and why, so you can review the outcome later.

Tools that can do it

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site.

Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[1] It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar. ^[1] The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted. ^[1]

Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date. ^[1] Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release. ^[1] Signals read automatically from company SDKs and docs, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds. ^[1]

The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date. ^[1] You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time. ^[1] An API serves per-line odds, the launch record and service health. ^[1]

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[1] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. ^[1]

Company posts and documentation show what a company has announced. Check whether those posts cover the model families you trade on. A personal tracking sheet is another option, as long as each entry has a date and a source you can point to.

Common mistakes to avoid

Avoid treating any estimate as a confirmed date. A release estimate is a judgment about timing, so it can be wrong even when the method is sound.

Avoid mixing up windows. An odds figure for a release within a set number of days is not the same as one for a release by a fixed date.

Avoid ignoring the rules of your market. A launch that counts under one definition may not count under another.

Avoid relying on one source. Compare estimates and look closely at the places where they disagree.

Avoid skipping the spread. An estimate shown without a range hides how uncertain it is.

Frequently asked questions

Does Model Odds show odds on AI model release dates?

Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[1] It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar. ^[1] Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date. ^[1]

Is Model Odds free for prediction market traders?

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[1] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript, so it can be opened on most computers with a modern browser. ^[1] If you want alerts, you can sign up with a confirmed email address to receive them. ^[1]

Can Model Odds replay past dates to test an estimate?

The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date. ^[1] This lets you see how the estimate would have looked on a day you choose, before a trade you are weighing. Signals read from company SDKs and docs, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds. ^[1] Check the output against the launches you already know about.

Which AI companies does Model Odds cover for release odds?

Model Odds ranks Anthropic and OpenAI model families by their estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[1] Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release. ^[1] If your markets involve other AI companies, check whether they are included before relying on any figure from this page.

Can Model Odds be read through code?

An API serves per-line odds, the launch record and service health. ^[1] Model Odds is a website with a public API, so the same data can be read without signing in. ^[1] A script can then compare odds across different days, or set the figures beside your own record of past launches to check how they have moved.

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[1]

Try Model Odds

Sources

Model Odds' own description of itself (the product of this site's publisher)