Best AI model release trackers for AI engineers in 2026

Compare Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi, LLM Stats, and Model Odds for tracking AI model releases, with questions to ask before you pick.

By SupaKeeper · 2026-10-28

SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.

Pick the tracker by the question you need answered. Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. ^[1] Manifold offers a market primitive called Mana Perps. ^[2] Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future. ^[3] LLM Stats publishes independent rankings of GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek and 300+ AI models. ^[4] Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[5]

Option	What the tool does	Price as stated
Polymarket	Operates worldwide through separate companies. ^[1]	not published
Manifold	Its page says to get 1,000 to start trading. ^[2]	not published
Kalshi	Kalshi Pro offers perpetual futures markets. ^[3] ^[3]	not published
LLM Stats	Tracks 408 models across every major lab and inference provider. ^[4]	not published
Model Odds	Ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[5]	Free, no account needed. ^[5]

What AI engineers need from AI model release trackers

An AI engineer who builds on a lab's models needs to know when the next release may change what the build can rely on. No tracker can name the exact day a lab ships, because a lab can move its plans without notice. A release tracker gives an estimate, and an estimate is not a guarantee. Tools measure the question in different currencies. A prediction market sets a price on an event, and a leaderboard ranks models after they exist. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[5] The number is a probability built from a method the reader can check, and that method matters as much as the number itself. Signals read automatically from company SDKs and documentation can only raise the odds. ^[5] A tracker is one input into a build decision, not the answer by itself.

Polymarket for AI engineers

Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. ^[1] Its international platform operates independently and is outside the rules of the US derivatives regulator, the CFTC. ^[1] Check which model release events it carries before relying on it.

Manifold for AI engineers

Manifold groups its markets into categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun. ^[2] Its page says to get 1,000 to start trading. ^[2] Manifold offers a market primitive called Mana Perps. ^[2] Check which technology markets, if any, track the releases you watch.

Kalshi for AI engineers

Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future. ^[3] Kalshi Pro offers perpetual futures markets. ^[3] ^[3] Check which event markets it carries before relying on it.

LLM Stats for AI engineers

LLM Stats publishes independent rankings of GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek and 300+ AI models. ^[4] It ranks GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek, Qwen, Mistral, GLM and more by intelligence, speed and price. ^[4] It tracks 408 canonical models across every major lab and inference provider. ^[4] It ranks models that exist; check separately for when a lab may ship the next one.

Model Odds for AI engineers

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[5] Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release. ^[5] It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them, shown as the margin of uncertainty. ^[5] The estimate uses a model of the time between past launches, which also counts how long the current wait has already lasted. ^[5] Each past launch has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date. ^[5] The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date. ^[5] Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[5] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. ^[5]

Matching the tool to the job

To estimate when Anthropic or OpenAI may ship a model, Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[5] Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release. ^[5]

To check the method behind a number, Model Odds runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar. ^[5] Each past launch has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline. ^[5] The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date. ^[5]

To consider a forecast as a trade, Polymarket calls itself the world's largest prediction market. ^[1] Manifold groups its markets into categories that include technology. ^[2] Kalshi's page is titled 'Prediction Market for Trading the Future'. ^[3] Check each platform for the specific markets and terms before trading.

To rank models that already exist, LLM Stats ranks GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek and 300+ AI models. ^[4]

To receive release alerts, Model Odds offers email alerts after a confirmed signup, and every subscriber gets every company's releases at the same time. ^[5]

Questions to ask before you choose

Which question do you need answered: the odds of an upcoming release, the record of past releases, or a tradeable price?

Do you build on Anthropic and OpenAI models, or others too? Model Odds ranks Anthropic and OpenAI families. ^[5] Check any tracking source for what it follows.

How is the estimate built, and is the method open to check? Model Odds runs three estimators and publishes the spread between them as a margin of uncertainty, and confirms each past launch. ^[5] ^[5]

What can you spend? Model Odds is free with no account, and prediction markets have their own terms. ^[5] Check each page before you commit.

Do you want to act when a release lands? Model Odds sends alerts to a confirmed email. ^[5]

What does each prediction market charge and cover? Read each platform's pages before you trade.

Frequently asked questions

Can Model Odds estimate when the next AI model will be released?

Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[5] The estimate is a probability, not a promise, and the published information does not give an accuracy figure, so the hit rate is not yet known. Each past launch is confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline and is listed with its date. ^[5]

Is Model Odds free to use?

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[5] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. ^[5] Model Odds offers email alerts after a confirmed signup, and every subscriber gets every company's releases at the same time. ^[5] Check its page for current terms.

Does Model Odds track labs other than Anthropic and OpenAI?

Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[5] Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release. ^[5] The published claims name those two labs, so check its pages for what it follows.

Can Polymarket track AI model releases?

Polymarket calls itself the world's largest prediction market. ^[1] The published facts do not say which model release events it carries, so check its pages for what you want.

How does LLM Stats track models?

LLM Stats ranks GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek and 300+ AI models. ^[4] It tracks 408 models across every major lab and inference provider. ^[4] These rankings show models that already exist, so check separately for a tool that estimates when the next release may come.

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[5]

Try Model Odds