Best AI model release trackers for dev tool founders

Compare Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi, Artificial Analysis, Hugging Face and Model Odds for tracking AI model release timing.

By SupaKeeper · 2026-10-28

SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.

Start with the job you need the tracker to do. Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. ^[1] Manifold lets users browse markets in several categories. ^[2] Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[3]

Option	What the tool does	Price as stated
Polymarket	Describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. ^[1]	not published
Manifold	Lets users browse markets in several categories. ^[2]	not published
Kalshi	Offers perpetual futures markets through Kalshi Pro. ^[4]	not published
Artificial Analysis	Compares models side by side on intelligence, pricing, speed, latency and benchmarks. ^[5]	not published
Hugging Face	Hosts more than 2 million models to browse. ^[6]	GPU compute starts at $0.60/hour. ^[6]
Model Odds	Ranks each Anthropic and OpenAI model family by estimated chance of release within 30 days. ^[3]	Free, no account and no paid plan. ^[3]

What developer tool founders need from AI model release trackers

A developer tool founder builds software that sits on top of AI models, so a new model release can change what the tool should do next. Knowing when a model arrives helps a founder decide whether to update docs, adjust pricing, or plan the next feature. These are separate questions, and no single source answers all of them.

Prediction markets show what traders believe about future events. ^[3] The sections below say what each source states and nothing more.

Polymarket for developer tool founders

Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market. ^[1] Polymarket operates globally through separate legal entities. ^[1] Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a market the CFTC, the United States agency that oversees futures and options, has approved to run listed contracts. ^[1] Check whether its markets list the model releases you care about.

Manifold for developer tool founders

Manifold lets users browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun. ^[2] New users are given 1,000 to start trading. ^[2] The page is copyrighted by Manifold Markets, Inc. ^[2] Check whether its technology markets cover the model you need.

Kalshi for developer tool founders

Kalshi describes itself as a prediction market for trading the future. ^[4] Kalshi offers perpetual futures markets through Kalshi Pro. ^[4] Its pages list a Kalshi Pro Perpetual Futures Markets product. ^[4] Check whether any of its markets track the model releases you follow.

Artificial Analysis for developer tool founders

Artificial Analysis lets users compare models side by side on intelligence, pricing, speed, latency, benchmarks and more. ^[5] It offers a product called Optima. ^[5] Its Cyber Index v1 incorporates 3 evaluations. ^[5] It works with released models, so check whether its pages tell you anything about upcoming releases.

Hugging Face for developer tool founders

Hugging Face is a platform where the machine learning community collaborates on models, datasets, and applications. ^[6] It hosts more than 2 million models available to browse. ^[6] GPU compute on Hugging Face starts at $0.60/hour. ^[6] It is a place to find and use released models, and it does not by itself say when a new model will arrive.

Model Odds for developer tool founders

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[3] Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release. ^[3] Each past launch in the record has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and each one is listed with its date. ^[3]

The page shows the range between its estimates, so a reader can see how far apart they sit. ^[3] The estimate takes into account the gaps between recent launches and how long the current wait has already lasted. ^[3] The odds take into account signals such as hints in company SDKs, docs and third-party model catalogues. ^[3] The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date. ^[3]

You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's launches at the same time. ^[3] Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[3] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. ^[3]

Matching the tool to the job

To see the estimated chance a model releases soon, Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by that chance within 30 days. ^[3] It takes how long the current wait has lasted into account. ^[3]

To trade a view on the future, Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market, ^[1] Manifold lets users browse markets in several categories, ^[2] and Kalshi offers perpetual futures markets through Kalshi Pro. ^[4]

To compare models that are already out, Artificial Analysis lets users compare on intelligence, pricing, speed, latency and benchmarks, ^[5] and Hugging Face hosts more than 2 million models to browse. ^[6]

To build release data into your own tools, Model Odds has a public API that serves per-line odds, the launch record and service health. ^[3] The website and the API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes. ^[3] To verify that a past launch happened, Model Odds lists each launch with a date confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline. ^[3]

Questions to ask before you choose

Which question do you need answered: a model release chance, a tradeable market, or a comparison of released models?

Do you want a market you can trade, or a probability you can read? Polymarket, ^[1] Manifold ^[2] and Kalshi ^[4] are markets, while Model Odds gives a probability. ^[3]

Is a probability without an account what you need, or do you want to compare and browse released models? Hugging Face lets you browse more than 2 million models, ^[6] and Artificial Analysis compares them. ^[5]

How fresh does the data need to be? The Model Odds snapshot is cached for up to five minutes. ^[3] Check how each marketplace updates its numbers.

What can you spend? Model Odds is free, ^[3] and Hugging Face lists GPU compute starting at $0.60/hour. ^[6] Check whether the trading platforms list fees before you commit.

Frequently asked questions

Which tool estimates the chance an AI model releases soon?

Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days. ^[3] It publishes the range between its estimates, so a reader can see how far apart they sit. ^[3] Each past launch is confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline and listed with its date. ^[3] The other tools here are markets or model comparisons, so check their pages if you want timing from them.

Is Model Odds free?

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[3] Email alerts are available to anyone who signs up with a confirmed email, and every subscriber gets every company's launches at the same time. ^[3] It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript. ^[3] Check its page for current terms.

Can prediction markets help track model releases?

Polymarket describes itself as the world's largest prediction market, ^[1] Manifold lets users browse markets in several categories, ^[2] and Kalshi offers perpetual futures markets through Kalshi Pro. ^[4] Each runs as a market, so its numbers reflect what traders believe at a point in time. Check whether any of them lists the specific model release you want to follow.

How fresh is the release data?

The Model Odds website and API share one snapshot that is cached for up to five minutes. ^[3] Past estimates can be checked against the dates they were made. ^[3] For the prediction market sites and the model comparison tools, check each page to see how often their numbers update.

How does Model Odds confirm that a launch happened?

Each past launch in the record has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and each one is listed with its date. ^[3] It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by estimated chance of release within 30 days. ^[3] The published facts do not include an accuracy figure for the ranking, so the number of correct and incorrect calls is not yet known.

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[3]

Try Model Odds