LLM Stats vs Manifold in 2026: Which Tool Answers Your Question

Compare LLM Stats and Manifold on what each one does, what each costs and what to check before you choose one for your question.

By SupaKeeper · 2026-10-30

SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.

LLM Stats ranks AI models by intelligence, speed and price ^[1]. Manifold lets users browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun ^[2]. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3], so the three answer different questions.

Option	What its sources say it does	Cost	Account or install
LLM Stats	Ranks GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek, Qwen, Mistral, GLM and more by intelligence, speed and price ^[1]. Tracks 408 canonical models across every major lab and inference provider ^[1]	not published	not published; a weekly email digest is offered ^[1]
Manifold	Lets users browse markets in categories including politics, technology, sports, culture, business and fun ^[2]	not published; new users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading ^[2]	not published
Model Odds	Ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. Publishes the spread between three estimators as an error bar ^[3]	Free ^[3]	No account needed ^[3]. A website with a public API ^[3], running in the browser and needing JavaScript ^[3]

The short answer

LLM Stats ranks AI models by intelligence, speed and price ^[1]. Manifold, by its page, gives new users 1,000 Mana to start trading ^[2], and the facts available here say little more about what it does. Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. For a developer comparing models on price or speed, the LLM Stats sources describe that ^[1]. For a developer asking when an Anthropic or OpenAI model might arrive, Model Odds is built for that ^[3].

What LLM Stats and Manifold are built for

The LLM Stats leaderboard ranks GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek, Qwen, Mistral, GLM and more by intelligence, speed and price ^[1]. Its Cheapest filter restricts results to verified, currently-available frontier models ^[1]. Its rankings refresh continuously as new benchmark results land ^[1]. Manifold's page says new users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading ^[2]. The facts available here do not describe its markets or its other features, so check its own pages for those.

What Model Odds is built for

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site. It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[3]. Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release ^[3]. Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date ^[3]. The estimate fits the gaps between recent launches and accounts for how long the current wait has already lasted ^[3]. It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar, so you can see how far the estimates disagree ^[3]. Automatic signals from company SDKs and docs, and from third-party model catalogues when two of them agree, can only raise the odds ^[3]. The estimator can replay any past date without using data from after that date ^[3]. It has a public API that serves odds, the launch record and service health ^[3]. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[3].

Pricing and fees

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[3]. The facts available here do not state a price for LLM Stats, so none is published in this comparison. Manifold's page says new users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading ^[2], and no fee for Manifold itself is stated in the facts here, so that fee is not published here. The facts here give no discount, trial or other charge for any of the three, so none is stated. If you need the cost of LLM Stats or Manifold, check their own pages.

Setting it up and daily use

Model Odds is a website with a public API ^[3]. It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[3]. The website and the API share one set of data that is cached for up to five minutes ^[3]. Signing up for alerts takes a confirmed email address ^[3]. For LLM Stats, the facts here say its leaderboard refreshes continuously as new benchmark results land ^[1], and they say nothing about installing or setting it up, so check its pages for that. For Manifold, the facts here say only that new users get 1,000 Mana to start trading ^[2], and say nothing about setup or daily use, so check its own pages.

Things to check before you choose

Ask whether you need a chance of release within 30 days or a record of past releases. Model Odds ranks by that chance ^[3] and lists past releases for each company ^[3]. Ask how much the uncertainty matters to you, since Model Odds shows the spread between its three estimators as an error bar ^[3]. Ask whether you need to check how past dates were scored, because the estimator can replay any past date without data from after it ^[3]. Ask how fresh the data must be, because Model Odds data is cached for up to five minutes ^[3]. Ask whether either tool charges for what you use: Model Odds is free ^[3], and the facts available here give no price for LLM Stats or Manifold, so check their own pages.

How to choose

If you want to know when an Anthropic or OpenAI model family might next be released, Model Odds is built for that ^[3], and it can send email alerts to confirmed subscribers ^[3]. If you want models ranked by intelligence, speed and price, LLM Stats is the tool whose sources say it does that ^[1]. If you want a free API that needs no account, Model Odds offers one ^[3] ^[3]. For any other question, the facts available here say little about Manifold beyond its new-user Mana grant ^[2], so check its own pages before you pick it.

Frequently asked questions

Is Model Odds free to use?

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[3]. It is a website with a public API that serves odds, the launch record and service health ^[3]. It runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[3]. No other price for Model Odds is given in its claims.

Does LLM Stats charge for its rankings?

The facts available here do not state a price for LLM Stats, so none is published in this comparison. Its leaderboard ranks GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek, Qwen, Mistral, GLM and more by intelligence, speed and price ^[1]. Its rankings refresh continuously as new benchmark results land ^[1]. Check its own pages for any charge, since none is stated here.

Does Manifold give new users 1,000 Mana? [[f:manifold-194f6b22]]

Manifold's page says new users are given 1,000 Mana to start trading ^[2]. The facts here do not state a fee for Manifold, and no trial or discount is described either, so none is stated. The facts here say nothing more about Manifold's markets or any charges, so check its own pages for those details before you start.

Does Model Odds send email alerts?

Yes. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[3]. Each company also gets its own page that lists every past release ^[3]. The facts here do not describe how often alerts are sent, so check the site for that.

Can LLM Stats rank models by price?

Yes. LLM Stats ranks GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, DeepSeek, Qwen, Mistral, GLM and more by intelligence, speed and price ^[1]. Its Cheapest filter restricts results to verified, currently-available frontier models ^[1]. The facts here do not describe its price data in detail, so check its own pages for that.

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[3]

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