Model Odds vs Kalshi in 2026

Q: Is trading on Kalshi against AI model release odds the same as Model Odds?

No. Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future , where trading involves risk and may not be appropriate for all and Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees . Model Odds publishes an estimate of release chances and is free with no account needed .

Model Odds vs Kalshi compared on what each does, what each costs, and what to check before you pick one for tracking AI model releases.

By SupaKeeper · 2026-10-31

SupaKeeper is published by LunarWerx, which makes some of the tools compared here.

Model Odds and Kalshi compared on what each does, what each costs, what each needs from you to start, and what to check before you pick one for tracking AI model releases.

Option	What it does	Free to use	Account	System needed
Kalshi	Prediction market for trading the future ^[1]	Price and fee schedule not published	Not stated in the facts given here	Not stated in the facts given here
Model Odds	Ranks each Anthropic and OpenAI model family by estimated chance of release within 30 days ^[2]	Free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[2]	No account is needed ^[2]	Browser with JavaScript enabled ^[2]

The short answer

Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[2]. Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future ^[1]. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for everyone ^[1].

On needs, Model Odds' claims say it covers estimated odds of a release ^[2], a record of past launches ^[2] and three estimators run side by side ^[2]. Kalshi's pages describe a prediction market under United States regulatory oversight by the CFTC ^[1], and trading that is at the user's own risk ^[1].

What Kalshi is built for

Kalshi's own page calls it a prediction market for trading the future ^[1]. It is subject to United States regulatory oversight by the CFTC ^[1].

Kalshi's page lists a product named Kalshi Pro Perpetual Futures Markets ^[1].

Kalshi's page says trading on it involves risk and may not be appropriate for all ^[1]. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees ^[1], and any trading decisions are solely the user's responsibility and at their own risk ^[1].

What Model Odds is built for

Model Odds is made by the team that publishes this site.

It ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[2]. Anthropic and OpenAI each get their own page that lists every past release ^[2]. Each past launch the model uses has to be confirmed by an official post and an independent timeline, and it is listed with its date ^[2].

It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar ^[2]. The estimate is based on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted ^[2].

Hints picked up automatically from company developer pages, and from outside model lists when two of them agree, can only raise the odds ^[2]. It can check how it would have done on past dates without peeking at later data ^[2]. You can sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[2]. It is a web app that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[2].

Pricing and fees

Kalshi's pages say Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees ^[1], and that any trading decisions are the user's own responsibility and at their own risk ^[1]. Kalshi's fee schedule is not published.

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[2].

Setting it up and daily use

Model Odds is a website with a public API ^[2]. It runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[2].

For Kalshi, its own pages do not describe how a new user signs up or trades day to day beyond what is quoted here, so check the platform itself for the steps. Its cited facts say trading involves risk ^[1].

Model Odds offers alerts: you sign up with a confirmed email, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[2]. Its API gives you the odds for each model line, the launch record and the service health ^[2]. The website and the API share one snapshot cached for up to five minutes ^[2].

Things to check before you choose

Check whether the tool measures what you need: Model Odds ranks estimated release chances within 30 days ^[2], while Kalshi is a market where you trade on future outcomes ^[1].

Check what risk you accept. Kalshi says trading involves risk and may not be appropriate for all ^[1] and that Members risk losing their entry cost, including fees ^[1].

Check cost and accounts. Model Odds says it is free with no account needed ^[2]. The Kalshi facts given here do not state prices or fees, so check the platform for its published fee schedule.

Check how the release-odds estimate fits your decision. Model Odds publishes an estimate of release chances ^[2].

How to choose

If you want to know which AI model is more likely to appear soon, Model Odds' claims describe estimated release odds within 30 days ^[2]. To track past releases per company, its claims say Anthropic and OpenAI each get a page that lists every past release ^[2].

If you want to trade, Kalshi is described as a prediction market for trading the future ^[1], subject to CFTC regulatory oversight ^[1].

If you want to avoid per-user costs and accounts, Model Odds is free with no account needed ^[2]. If you want to trade, remember Kalshi says trading decisions are solely the user's responsibility and at your own risk ^[1] and trading may not be appropriate for all ^[1].

Frequently asked questions

Is Model Odds free to use?

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed ^[2]. It is a website that runs in the browser and needs JavaScript ^[2]. The facts given here do not state any paid tier, so the only price they give is free. Check the project's own pages if you need more detail on any future plans.

Does Kalshi publish its fees?

Kalshi's page says Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees ^[1]. No fee figure is given on this page, so Kalshi's fee schedule is not published here. Check the platform itself for its published fees before you enter any transaction.

How does Model Odds get its release odds?

Model Odds ranks every Anthropic and OpenAI model family by its estimated chance of a release within 30 days ^[2]. It runs three estimators side by side and publishes the spread between them as the error bar ^[2]. The estimate is a renewal process fitted on the gaps between recent launches, and it takes into account how long the current wait has already lasted ^[2].

Is trading on Kalshi against AI model release odds the same as Model Odds?

No. Kalshi is a prediction market for trading the future ^[1], where trading involves risk and may not be appropriate for all ^[1] and Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees ^[1]. Model Odds publishes an estimate of release chances and is free with no account needed ^[2].

Does Model Odds send alerts without an account?

Model Odds lets you sign up with a confirmed email to get alerts, and every subscriber gets every company's drops at the same time ^[2]. The core site and API are free with no account needed ^[2], though signing up for email alerts does use an email address. Kalshi's facts here do not describe an alert program.

Model Odds is free, and so is its API, with no account needed. ^[2]

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